Bitcoin Taps $87,200 as Weak US Jobs Data Sends Bond Yields Lower
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin reached $87,229 on Bitstamp, just short of new eight-month highs, before dropping back below $86,000 as resistance held.
- •September US nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000 against an expected 84,000, and August's figure was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
- •The odds of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting fell to 18% from 64% a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
- •US bond yields declined for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year at 5.573% and the 10-year at 5.2%, after both hit 24-year highs on Wednesday.
- •QCP Capital argued that a Treasury relief rally would provide Bitcoin's "cleanest upside catalyst," and trader Aksel Kibar identified a successful support retest at $82,800.
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $87,000 on Friday after United States jobs data missed expectations, with falling US bond yields emerging as what one trading firm calls Bitcoin's "cleanest upside catalyst."
Key points:
- Bitcoin tapped $87,200 but failed to make new multi-month highs as overhead resistance held.
- September US nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations at 29,000, while the August and July figures were revised lower.
- Analysts saw further BTC price upside on the back of falling US bond yields.
Bond yields extend fall on weak labor-market data
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $87,229 on Bitstamp, just shy of new eight-month highs.
September nonfarm payrolls — the monthly count of US job additions that investors watch for signals on labor-market strength and Federal Reserve policy — came in below expectations, with the economy adding just 29,000 jobs against an anticipated 84,000. August numbers, which had beaten expectations on release, were revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
US stocks gained at the Wall Street open as traders scaled back hawkish bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes following the weaker jobs data. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1% and 1.8%, respectively.
"This marks the third weakest jobs report of 2026," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed just an 18% chance of the Fed en a 0.25% rate hike at its October meeting, down from 64% a week ago. The Fed's October gathering now stands as the next scheduled checkpoint for markets repricing its policy path.
US bond yields fell for a second consecutive day, with the 30-year yield at 5.573% and the 10-year at 5.2% at the time of writing. On Wednesday, both reached new 24-year highs as markets looked past softer August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, known as the Fed's "preferred" inflation gauge.
Bitcoin analysis sees "cleanest upside catalyst" in yield drop
Bitcoin price action failed to break beyond the multi-month highs seen in September, dropping back below $86,000 at the time of writing. Related: Here's what happened in crypto today.
Cointelegraph previously reported on successive walls of ask liquidity on exchange order books — stacked clusters of sell orders that can cap short-term rallies — keeping upside in check, with the latest band at $87,300 forming new resistance, according to a BTC liquidation heatmap from CoinGlass.
In a new analysis, trading firm QCP Capital argued that BTC/USD should still benefit from the softer labor-market print, with bond yields continuing to fall.
"For Bitcoin, a Treasury relief rally would provide the cleanest upside catalyst. The asset has already demonstrated resilience through a real-rate shock that pressured gold," it wrote.
Meanwhile, trader Aksel Kibar saw that a successful support retest at $82,800 was already in place on the daily chart, per his BTC/USD one-day chart published on X.com.
Originally reported by Cointelegraph.
