Bitcoin Infinity Day Study by crypto4me: Bitcoin Is Now Twice as Scarce as Gold
Key Takeaways
- •A crypto4me study finds that Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio reached roughly double gold's after the April 2024 halving cut the per-block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
- •Using World Gold Council and U.S. Geological Survey data, the study scores gold at about 59 and Bitcoin at about 120, with both assets near 60 before the halving.
- •The report identifies 2024 as the year Bitcoin's scarcity surpassed gold's and projects that the 2028 halving could make Bitcoin about four times as scarce as gold.
- •The study openly states that stock-to-flow does not predict price, noting the PlanB S2F price model failed after 2021, and that scarcity says nothing about volatility.
- •The report is available free of charge on the crypto4me website from August 21, 2026, and is intended for informational purposes only rather than as investment advice.
Bratislava, Slovakia, August 17, 2026 (Chainwire) — A new study by crypto4me finds that Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio reached roughly double that of gold following the 2024 halving. Published ahead of Bitcoin Infinity Day — the annual August 21 celebration of Bitcoin's fixed 21-million supply — Scarcity: Algorithm vs. Natural Reserves was released by crypto4me, the digital-asset service provided by Madison Six, a regulated MiCA-licensed company. The study puts a precise figure on a long-running claim: measured by stock-to-flow, Bitcoin is now about twice as scarce as gold.
Stock-to-flow (S2F) compares an asset's existing supply with the new supply added each year — a standard gauge of how hard something is to inflate, borrowed from commodity analysis long before crypto adopted it. On the latest World Gold Council and U.S. Geological Survey data, gold scores about 59 — meaning mining adds only around 1.7% a year to the metal's above-ground stock — while Bitcoin, after its 2024 halving cut new issuance in half, scores about 120.
The original finding: 2024 was the crossover
The study's central insight is not the ratio itself but its timing. Because Bitcoin's new supply is halved roughly every four years by the protocol's hard-coded schedule — the April 2024 event cut the per-block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC — while gold's output barely moves, the two assets' scarcity lines crossed in 2024. Before the halving, Bitcoin and gold were about equally hard to inflate, with both near 60. After it, Bitcoin jumped to roughly double — and if the schedule holds, the 2028 halving will take it to about four times gold. Looking further out, issuance keeps shrinking in fixed steps toward the 21-million cap, with the last new bitcoin not expected until around 2140 under the protocol's schedule.
Deliberately honest about the metric
Unusually for a crypto publication, the study devotes a full section to where its own headline number stops working. It states plainly that S2F does not predict price — the once-popular "S2F price model," popularized in 2019 by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB, failed after 2021 — that the ratio is a dated snapshot rather than a constant, and that scarcity says nothing about volatility.
"Harder to inflate is not the same as worth more or safer," the study notes.
Crypto4me argues that this candour is the point: the credible version of the story is narrower, and more interesting, than the usual claims.
Availability
Scarcity: Algorithm vs. Natural Reserves is available free of charge on the crypto4me website from August 21, 2026, alongside an author's commentary and a social-media series comparing Bitcoin's scarcity with gold and other commodities. The study is provided for analytical and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
About crypto4me
Crypto4me enables the purchase of all major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, ether and SOL. In compliance with the strict conditions of the European MiCA license — the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, which has applied in full across the bloc since December 2024 — the company ensures the highest standards of security for trading and the storage of cryptocurrencies in wallets, as well as additional measures such as multi-factor client authentication, encryption, and regular penetration testing.
The crypto4me service is operated by Madison Six j. s. a. As of December 18, 2025, the company holds authorization to provide cryptocurrency-related services, granted by the National Bank of Slovakia under number 100-001-025-213 in accordance with the MiCA regulation.* On the basis of this license, the company is also authorized to provide cryptocurrency services on a cross-border basis throughout the EU/EEA.
* Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 May 2023 on markets in crypto-assets and amending Regulations (EU) No 1093/2010 and (EU) No 1095/2010 and Directives 2013/36/EU and (EU) 2019/1937.
Media contact: Miloš Mázor, Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO, Madison Six — support@madisonsix.com
