Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at Thursday's Wall Street open as analysts flagged renewed signs of US "stagflation," while geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz failed to inject volatility into markets.

Iran Tempers Strait of Hormuz Reopening Expectations

TradingView data showed BTC/USD hovering above $64,000, down approximately 0.5% on the day, as US equities opened flat.

Anticipation of an agreement between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route produced little market movement. Without US participation, it remained unclear whether international shipping traffic would fully resume.

"This understanding does not, in itself, mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen," Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), quoted by CNN.

US WTI crude oil was little changed at $76 per barrel, having touched three-week lows of $74.30 the previous session.

ISM Services PMI Data Signals Mounting Stagflation Risk

With markets awaiting further geopolitical cues, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter examined the latest US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI and employment figures, released Wednesday. The data revealed a continuing divergence: PMI edged up 0.1 point in July to 54.1, while employment fell 3.6 points to 47.4 — its lowest reading since March. Under ISM methodology, readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction, placing the employment subindex firmly in contractionary territory.

"At the same time, the prices paid index surged +2.6 points, to 70.3, near the highest since October 2022. Prices paid have now trended higher for over 2 years, rising +16.9 points since March 2024. In other words, the economy is increasingly under pressure from both rising prices and a weakening labor market," The Kobeissi Letter reported on X.

Kobeissi added that the probability of stagflation was "intensifying" based on the combined PMI readings. Stagflation — the simultaneous occurrence of persistent inflation and economic stagnation — last materially affected the US economy during the 1970s and presents a particular challenge for policymakers, as conventional tools for addressing inflation typically worsen employment conditions.

Analysts Debate Catalyst for Bitcoin Price Breakout

Bitcoin has traded within a local range established since early June. Onchain analytics platform Glassnode characterized BTC/USD as exhibiting "boredom rather than capitulation."

In its Thursday analysis, Glassnode highlighted Bitcoin's muted response even as gold reached six-week highs and the S&P 500 notched all-time highs. The divergence is notable given Bitcoin's established correlation with risk assets during periods of ample liquidity, and its underperformance against major equity indices underscores the current absence of net new demand.

"The regime in one line: a compressed, under-owned market that global risk appetite has left behind, with bottom conditions assembling but incomplete," Glassnode summarized.

Cointelegraph has previously reported on bear-market comparisons drawing parallels to 2026, with Bitcoin gradually eroding support before declining toward the cycle's next macro floor.

Echoing Glassnode's assessment, Bitfinex Research — the analytics division of crypto exchange Bitfinex — also concluded that current conditions were insufficient to produce a decisive macro bottom.

"While macro developments and bitcoin's underperformance compared with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 signal underlying stress, a genuine breakdown requires something more forceful, followed by volume-supportive price action," Bitfinex Research wrote in a Wednesday update.