NewsMacroBitcoin and stocks hold steady as oil rallies on US-Iran tensions

Bitcoin and stocks hold steady as oil rallies on US-Iran tensions

Author: Cryptopolitan·

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin fell roughly 1% below $80,000 after a 20%-plus gain in August, failing twice in two weeks to hold $82,000 and trading below its 50-week moving average near $81,000.
  • Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,405.47 an ounce as a stronger August U.S. jobs report kept alive the possibility of a Fed rate hike, with markets pricing a 58.4% chance of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting.
  • Brent crude climbed 1.5% to $97.73 and WTI rose 1.8% to $93.10, both six-week highs, after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend.
  • European stocks closed mostly flat, with the Stoxx Europe 600 essentially unchanged, while France's CAC 40 rose 0.33% and Germany's DAX fell 0.15%.
  • Asian markets rallied, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 2.12% and South Korea's Kospi gaining 4.61%.
Bitcoin and stocks hold steady as oil rallies on US-Iran tensions

Bitcoin slipped about 1% below $80,000 on Monday after gaining more than 20% in August, with the $82,000 level still blocking its way higher and the 50-week moving average near $81,000 sitting overhead.

Oil jumped to six-week highs after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes, with Brent crude at $97.73 and West Texas Intermediate at $93.10 as Middle East tensions climbed. European stocks finished mostly flat, with France and Italy higher while the U.K., Germany, and Spain slipped.

Strong jobs data reshapes the Fed debate

A stronger August employment report has changed the mood around the Federal Reserve, and precious metals are feeling the effect. Gold slipped 0.5% to $4,405.47 an ounce, after already losing 1% on Friday, while December futures fell the same amount to $4,452.20.

The labor numbers gave traders fresh reason to think another increase in borrowing costs could still happen this month. Hiring improved sharply in August, and the jobless rate remained at 4.1%, easing some of the concern that had built around recent weakness in the U.S. labor market. Firmer employment data is the kind of reading that tends to keep the Fed comfortable holding policy tight, since a strong labor market can sustain inflationary pressure.

Attention now turns to two inflation reports that could shift expectations again. Producer prices arrive on Thursday, followed by consumer inflation on Friday. Pricing tracked by CME FedWatch currently puts the odds of a hike at the September 15-16 Fed meeting at 58.4%.

That possibility is working against bullion because gold produces no yield of its own. When rates move higher, interest-bearing assets can look more attractive to investors, even though the metal is commonly used as protection when prices across the economy are rising. Higher rates are also a factor that has historically weighed on risk assets broadly, including cryptocurrencies, which likewise offer no yield.

Trump also brought trade policy into the rate debate on Friday, saying the U.S. would halt commerce with nations where America runs a trade deficit unless the Fed lowers rates.

The weakness spread across the rest of the precious-metals market. Silver lost 0.2% to $66.03 an ounce, platinum fell 0.8% to $1,805.53, and palladium dropped 0.7% to $1,396.08.

Bitcoin cools after August run

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 today, down around 1%, after a strong August run handed investors gains of more than 20% over the past 30 days. The original cryptocurrency has already failed twice to hold onto $82,000 in the last two weeks, having kicked off this week trading below $80,000.

Bitcoin is also below its 50-week moving average at $81,000, a level it gave up in May. The cryptocurrency is now trading inside a compression zone following the sharp move higher in late August. Such a setup typically narrows price ranges as buyers and sellers balance, leaving the direction of the next breakout to be decided by incoming catalysts such as the week's inflation prints and the Fed meeting.

Oil rallies as Middle East tensions climb

While crypto has cooled, oil is moving the other way after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, pushing Middle East tensions higher. The region includes the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a large share of globally traded crude, so any escalation there tends to feed concerns about supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures climbed 1.5% to $97.73 a barrel on Monday and briefly reached $97.93, their highest level since July 23. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose 1.8% to $93.10, also reaching its highest level since late July. Higher oil prices flow through to fuel and transport costs, a channel through which energy markets can influence broader inflation readings.

European stocks flat, Asia rallies

European stocks were much quieter. The Stoxx Europe 600 finished at 649.90, up just 0.02 points, effectively flat on the day. France's CAC 40 led the major indexes, rising 0.33%, or 27.38 points, to 8,306.15, and Italy's FTSE MIB gained 0.25%, or 129.14 points, to 52,229.57.

The FTSE 100 slipped 0.08%, or 8.96 points, to 10,822.13. Germany's DAX closed at 26,006.53, down 39.87 points, or 0.15%, while Spain's IBEX 35 dropped 0.14%, or 28.90 points, to 20,021.80.

Markets in Asia saw a far better performance. Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 2.12%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 4.61%. The Chinese CSI 300 increased 0.59%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 also finished slightly higher.

Source: Cryptopolitan