Bitcoin's slide toward $77,000 has put short-term holder behavior in focus after CryptoQuant logged its first negative reading in 72 days for holder profit-and-loss flows to exchanges. Analyst Ali Charts flagged $73,000 as a downside level to watch, while Glassnode said a pullback toward the short-term holder cost basis could still be consistent with an uptrend.

Short-Term Holders Turn to Selling at a Loss

CryptoQuant reported that short-term holders' net profit and loss to exchanges fell to -3,022 BTC on a seven-day average, down from +21,182 on October 24. It marked the metric's first negative result since August 18. Over the same nine-day stretch, Bitcoin declined from $83,600 to $77,800. According to CryptoQuant, recent buyers are now underwater and selling into weakness, with coins moving to exchanges at a loss, per the firm's Quicktake insight.

The analytics firm drew a comparison with two earlier episodes. In January, the reading turned negative near $89,000, and in May it shifted around $76,900. The metric subsequently deepened to -60,768 and -41,364, respectively, as Bitcoin fell 28.5% and 23.2% before bottoming. Flows of this kind are monitored because they give a running view of whether the newest cohort of buyers is depositing coins in profit or in loss, making the flip negative a clear marker of when recent entrants begin realizing losses during a drawdown.

Glassnode Identifies $75,800 as a Potential Retest Level

Glassnode said Bitcoin is retesting the True Market Mean and noted that a decline toward the short-term holder cost basis of $75,800 could still fit within an uptrend. The firm cited a similar retest in mid-September, which occurred days before the market went on to reach its subsequent high. Cost-basis readings like this one mark the average on-chain price paid by recent buyers, which is the reference point Glassnode used to frame a potential retest as still consistent with an ongoing uptrend rather than a trend break.

Technical readings, however, continue to show weakness. On the four-hour Binance chart, Bitcoin traded at $77,159.34 on October 31, down from approximately $86,000 in early October, based on a TradingView chart.

Analyst Watches $73,000 as Support Weakens

Ali Charts identified $73,000 as a potential downside level if selling accelerates following the Binance hack and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. The analyst linked that price to short-term holders' average acquisition cost.

On the chart, immediate support is positioned between $76,000 and $77,000. A breakdown could expose $74,000 and then $72,000. Resistance stands at $78,000, followed by the $80,000–$82,000 zone. The chart and the on-chain data now point to the same checkpoints for the sessions ahead: whether the $76,000–$77,000 band holds through the midterm elections, and whether the CryptoQuant reading deepens from -3,022 BTC the way it did in the January and May episodes.

Momentum indicators were negative. The relative strength index stood at 35.21, below its average of 39.11. The MACD remained negative, with its line at -955.30 and the signal line at -710.12, while the histogram read -245.18. Elevated trading volume accompanied the latest decline.