Bitcoin has reclaimed the weekly MA50 near $78,700 after several weeks of rejection, with BTC trading around $80,375 at the time of writing. At the same time, known over-the-counter (OTC) desk reserves have fallen to 123,000 BTC, down from nearly 500,000 BTC in September 2021, according to analyst Darkfost.

The two data points were reported separately by analysts examining different parts of Bitcoin's market structure. Doctor Profit highlighted the technical weight of the weekly MA50, while Darkfost tracked supply held outside public markets.

Weekly MA50 Reclaimed After Repeated Rejections

In a post on X, Doctor Profit said Bitcoin had moved back above the weekly MA50 near $78,700 after weeks of failed attempts, keeping a weekly close above the average within reach.

The 50-week moving average, which averages roughly a year of weekly closing prices, is widely watched as a long-term trend gauge.

He compared the current setup with 2022-2023, when Bitcoin needed several attempts before breaking above the MA50, and said the recent bear trap followed a similar sequence after three to four weeks of rejection.

According to Doctor Profit, BTC remains inside a $71,000-$82,000 range. He identified $82,500-$83,000 as the stronger breakout confirmation level. He also cited seven historical MA50 weekly breakdowns that were followed by recoveries: five preceded bull markets, while two became traps, including 2011 and the 2020 COVID crash. Under his analysis, a weekly close above $78,700 would confirm a bull market. His strategy remains holding spot Bitcoin and targeting $88,000.

OTC Bitcoin Reserves Fall to Multi-Year Low

Darkfost reported that known OTC desk addresses currently hold about 123,000 BTC, compared with nearly 500,000 BTC on those desks in September 2021. He listed several possible reasons for the decline.

OTC desks broker large block trades directly between counterparties rather than through public order books, allowing sizeable buyers and sellers to transact without immediately moving open-market prices.

Investors may prefer holding Bitcoin rather than offering coins through private OTC transactions. Darkfost also pointed to miners as another possible factor, noting they can use OTC desks to sell BTC without directly affecting open-market prices. Additionally, some holders may prefer selling Bitcoin through public markets.

Darkfost said fewer BTC are now being offered through OTC desks, adding that declining reserves could direct more demand toward open-market purchases.

Analysts Track Supply and Resistance

The two analysts focused on separate components of Bitcoin's current market structure. Doctor Profit concentrated on the weekly MA50 and resistance above the current trading range, while Darkfost examined supply held outside public markets through known OTC desks. The observable checkpoints ahead are the weekly close relative to the $78,700 average and any further change in reported OTC reserve levels.

Separately, Doctor Profit discussed CRCL, COIN and ETH, saying they were performing strongly. He said he planned to expand investments into other sectors and promoted premium content.