Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back above $81,000 on Friday, printing an intraday high of $81,238 in the New York session — its first trade above that round number since September 7 — and rising close to 6% over 24 hours.

The move sits within the $76,000–$82,000 band that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant's weekly report characterizes as a "bullish cooldown." Momentum following the earlier run toward $82,000 has faded: the firm's bull score eased from 80 to 60, and the Coinbase Premium — the spread between Bitcoin's pricing on the US-regulated Coinbase exchange and global venues, widely used as a proxy for American spot demand — slipped back below zero. The report reads those as signals of cooling US spot demand rather than outright distribution.

Friday's spark was administrative rather than legislative: word that the CFTC's draft market-rules proposal is on its way to the White House for review, as flagged in an X post: word that the CFTC draft is reaching the White House https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2100946778069823967

The review is a routine checkpoint in the US rulemaking process — the CFTC, the federal agency that oversees America's derivatives markets, must clear it before a draft can advance toward formal publication — and it is a track that, unlike legislation, does not require a vote in Congress.

Glassnode: A Return to a Bullish On-Chain Regime

On-chain data frames the rebound as a regime shift rather than a bounce. Bitcoin has climbed back above its True Market Mean — the aggregate cost basis of actively held coins, computed near $76,700 — a recovery Glassnode called a return to a bullish on-chain regime in a Friday post on X.

Two cost clusters now sit overhead, according to Glassnode's cost-basis map. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries carry an average entry near $80,500, while the US spot ETF cohort's break-even band runs roughly $85,000–$86,000. The treasury cohort — public companies running corporate balance-sheet strategies alongside sovereign-style strategic Bitcoin reserve designs — gives the $80,000–$80,500 zone both chart-based and fundamental weight. Glassnode's positioning map also shows accumulated short liquidations concentrated at $83,000–$86,000, where forced closes could mechanically extend the advance.

Friday post on X https://x.com/glassnode/status/2100890406083084554

Fed Hike and a Stalled CLARITY Act Cap the Ceiling

The macro-political backdrop still limits upside. The Federal Reserve this week raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% — its first hike since July 2023 — and its dot plot now shows no cuts through 2027, with energy-driven inflation keeping the door open to further tightening. Higher policy rates lift the yields available on cash-like instruments and generally the liquidity backdrop against which risk assets trade.

Asset manager CoinShares concluded that a decisive break above $80,000 looks unlikely before year-end, while Grayscale called the hike a mid-cycle adjustment that should not derail crypto.

Legislative friction added pressure earlier in the week. The CLARITY Act, which would split market oversight between regulators, failed a procedural vote 49–50 on Tuesday and dragged BTC to the $75,000 area. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) insists the bill is not dead, and fellow Senator John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) expects debate to slip into a lame-duck session — the post-election sitting of the outgoing Congress.

$183 Million in Shorts Wiped Out in an Hour

The squeeze itself was driven by forced liquidations — exchanges automatically closing leveraged positions once the margin behind them runs out. Aggregate derivatives data shows roughly $192 million of leveraged positions closed in the final hour of the move, more than $183 million of them short bets, with Bitcoin accounting for about $119 million of that hour alone.

Across 24 hours, approximately $238 million of BTC shorts were wiped out against just $6 million of long liquidations, and more than 100,000 traders were liquidated market-wide over the daily window.

Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn added a longer-horizon marker: a weekly close above the 50-week moving average would strengthen the evidence that the bear-market bottom is already in place.

ETF Flows Return, Breadth Widens

Fund flows turned supportive just in time. US spot Bitcoin ETFs — the vehicles, tradable since their January 2024 approval, that give mainstream portfolios direct Bitcoin exposure — took in about $159 million net on Thursday, led by BlackRock's IBIT, after two straight days of outflows — though the week still finished roughly $427 million net negative in aggregate. Ethereum ETFs shed about $39 million, a third consecutive session of outflows.

Bitget Wallet research analyst Rashi Jang argued the move is stronger than a sentiment-driven bounce: early-month deleveraging cleared the field, leaving price more responsive to renewed spot demand, and sustained ETF inflows are capable of defending the $80,000 area. Strategist Eric Balchunas has separately projected that BTC ETF assets could triple those of gold over time, reaching $300–$400 billion.

The rebound also spread well beyond the lead asset. The altcoin rally lifted NEAR Protocol 31% and Arbitrum 30% in 24 hours, while whale-scale treasury proxies surged in sympathy: Strategy (MSTR) gained 12.38% and Solana-focused Forward Industries 18.95%. Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum-treasury firm Bitmine, argued that real sector demand can keep crypto rising even without the CLARITY Act, pointing to prediction markets that grew under regulatory ambiguity.

Macro risk lingers regardless. WTI crude dipped near $94.8 before recovering toward $98 on Gulf-supply worries — the kind of energy-price pressure behind the Fed's inflation caution — and the 30-year Treasury yield pushed up 90 basis points this week to 5.34% — the backdrop CoinShares weighs when it doubts a durable break above $80,000.

$81,911 Resistance, $79,517 Support in Focus

As of 03:26 UTC, Coinotag's proprietary 42-indicator composite support/resistance scoring engine rates the nearest resistance at $81,911 a STRONG 80/100 — a confluence of the Keltner Upper band, the 0.000 Fibonacci and the Donchian Upper band — with $87,861 (50/100) the next objective above. Spot traded at $81,198, up 4.90% over 24 hours.

On the downside, the engine scores $79,517 support at 76/100, driven by the Pivot Point, the 0.114 Fibonacci and a low-volume node, with $78,320 (66/100) below it and $72,917 (68/100) behind.

Derivatives positioning appears balanced, with no signs of froth: funding — the periodic fee exchanged between perpetual-futures longs and shorts — sits at a near-neutral 0.0068%, open interest near $16.96 billion and the long/short ratio at 1.07, while the Fear & Greed Index, a composite sentiment gauge, reads 71 (Greed). RSI at 64.20 with a bearish MACD signal inside an uptrend points to consolidation. A daily close below $78,320 would invalidate the bullish structure, according to the framework.