Bitcoin's move back above $77,500 lifted the broader crypto complex on September 3, 2026, with XRP outpacing other large-cap tokens as easing Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations reset risk appetite ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

Bitcoin traded just above $77,600 after rebounding from a 24-hour low near $76,400, CoinDesk reported. Spot pricing on CoinGecko put the asset at $78,009, up 0.42% over the prior day, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.57 trillion.

XRP led the move among the majors, climbing 1.57% over 24 hours against Bitcoin's 0.42%, while ether slipped 0.63% and BNB, SOL, and TRX posted gains of 1.33%, 0.80%, and 1.06% respectively. On CoinDesk's major-token board, XRP sat around $1.36 and topped the 24-hour leaderboard. For related coverage, see Mubadala Increases BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Holdings to More Than $565 Million.

The relative ranking depends on where the "majors" line is drawn. On the broader large-cap basket, cardano and dogecoin outperformed XRP over the same window, up 3.91% and 1.85% respectively, so XRP's leadership holds against BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and TRX but not across every top asset. For related coverage, see Wallet 0x77ee Opens $31.08 Million 40x Bitcoin Short on HyperliquidX.

Sentiment reflected the constructive tone, with the Fear & Greed Index reading 65, in "Greed" territory. The macro backdrop for the move ties back to Fed liquidity and dollar dynamics that continue to drive crypto beta — a relationship that has become more pronounced since US spot Bitcoin ETFs tied large swaths of crypto trading to traditional-finance flows and rate expectations.

Softer Fed Hike Odds Reset Crypto Risk Appetite

The catalyst was a downshift in rate-hike expectations for this month. CoinDesk cited CME FedWatch putting the probability of a quarter-point hike on September 16 at just above 62%, down from just above 67% a day earlier, according to that single-source reading. FedWatch derives those probabilities from pricing in fed funds futures, which is why the figure moves day to day as markets reprice. For related coverage, see Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $197M Weekly Inflows, Snapping 8-Week Outflow Streak.

Independent readings differ, underscoring how contested the exact figure is. A WSJ market summary the same day put money-market odds of a September hike at 59%, down from nearly 70% the day before.

The direction, not the decimal, is what matters for risk assets. Lower perceived tightening pressure eases the discount rate applied to long-duration risk, which historically supports Bitcoin and higher-beta large-cap altcoins like XRP that trade as leveraged expressions of liquidity conditions.

The policy context is firmly hawkish. The Fed's July 29 statement kept the target range at 3.5% to 3.75% but recorded three dissents — from Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan — who preferred an immediate 25 basis point hike.

Markets had already leaned into a September move. The July 28–29 minutes noted that market pricing had fully priced in a 25 basis point hike by the September meeting, making the current slide in odds a meaningful repricing rather than noise.

What Traders Are Watching Into the September 16 Decision

The immediate technical question is whether Bitcoin can hold above $77,500 as an active support shelf. Bitfinex analysts framed the level in cost-basis terms, noting BTC was compressing above the roughly $76,350 active-investor cost basis, a zone that separates holders in profit from those underwater.

September has historically been a bearish month for BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013. — Bitfinex Alpha

That seasonal drag makes the current bid notable: a reclaim of $77,500 against a historically weak month suggests the rate repricing is doing real work. Bitcoin's macro sensitivity to the dollar and Fed liquidity remains the dominant driver, a dynamic that has also underpinned sustained spot ETF demand in recent cycles.

For XRP, the test is whether it can keep leading a defined major-token set rather than a one-day rotation. Its 1.57% outperformance signals traders rotating into higher-beta large-cap exposure, but the cardano and dogecoin readings show that leadership is basket-dependent.

The binding variable is the FOMC. The official FOMC calendar confirms the next decision lands September 15–16, and any renewed firming in hike odds, or a hawkish outcome after markets had fully priced the move, could quickly reverse the follow-through that softer expectations delivered.