Bitcoin is moving away from its recent relationship with the Nasdaq as its correlation with gold rises, according to Grayscale research. The firm says Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from above 60% to about 33%, weakening its link to risk assets, while its correlation with gold climbed from near zero to above 50% as investors focused more on scarcity and monetary risks. Rising U.S. debt, deficits and Treasury yields are strengthening Bitcoin's appeal as a potential hedge against fiat debasement.

Bitcoin's Nasdaq Correlation Drops

Zach Pandl, Grayscale's head of research, said the shift follows a year in which Bitcoin traded like a high-beta risk asset, a period that coincided with an artificial intelligence-driven rally across risk assets.

Bitcoin's relationship with technology stocks has since weakened sharply. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 now stands near 33%, down from a level that previously exceeded 60%.

At the same time, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has climbed above 50%. The relationship stood barely above zero at the start of the year. Such rolling correlation measures describe how assets have moved together over the window measured, and they have shifted repeatedly across Bitcoin's history, so the current readings reflect a recent regime rather than a permanent property of the asset.

Debt and Yields Reshape the Backdrop

Pandl linked the change to renewed attention on what he called the debasement trade. U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, while long-term Treasury yields have risen as the Treasury curve sold off over the past year.

Larger debt balances and persistent deficits have also altered the broader macroeconomic backdrop. According to Pandl, those conditions have increased interest in assets that can hedge against weakening fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Gold itself has drawn sustained institutional and central bank demand in recent years, a trend often cited alongside the same fiscal concerns.

That shift has also brought Bitcoin's original design into focus. The network has no central issuer and follows a transparent issuance schedule.

Bitcoin's Fixed Supply Draws Focus

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins. Pandl said its scarcity and monetary independence distinguish it from traditional financial assets.

He also described Bitcoin as a liquid alternative to gold as investors assess the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. The asset's different return drivers could also affect its role within diversified portfolios.

Grayscale said the changing correlations highlight Bitcoin's relationship with both risk assets and scarce assets. The firm noted that digital assets may offer diversification benefits as market conditions change.

Source: Grayscale Research