Bitcoin climbed more than 23% in three days, reaching roughly $78,300 on Friday and adding $275 billion to its market capitalization, as Grayscale cited signs that the cryptocurrency may have formed a durable bottom.

The rally drew assessments from across the market: Grayscale weighed the cycle outlook, Bitfinex reported on funding conditions, and analyst Darkfost tracked the exchange flows behind the move.

Short-term holders moved about 53,000 BTC to exchanges during the profit-taking, including 17,800 BTC to Binance — the largest such inflow since February 2026. Strategy and Michael Saylor, meanwhile, returned to an unrealized Bitcoin profit of $1.87 billion as BTC recovered sharply from recent lows.

Grayscale Sees Shift in Bitcoin Cycle

According to Grayscale, Bitcoin has historically bottomed about 80% below its cycle peak. This time, however, the cryptocurrency fell roughly 50% from its latest peak — a shallower drawdown than in previous cycles at the same stage. The depth of a drawdown from a cycle peak is one of the standard measures used to place Bitcoin within its boom-and-bust market cycles, and it is the comparison underlying Grayscale's assessment.

Markets had debated whether Bitcoin would see another decline in the fourth quarter of 2026. Grayscale said risks remain, but the latest rally may indicate a more durable bottom.

Bitfinex separately reported that Bitcoin gained more than 20% in one week. The exchange also noted that funding rates — the recurring payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets — cooled after the initial breakout. According to Bitfinex, leverage-driven rallies usually keep funding rates elevated; in this case, funding spiked during the breakout before quickly returning to baseline.

Short-Term Holders Drive Exchange Flows

Darkfost reported that Bitcoin gained more than 7% on Friday alone, closing near $78,300. Over three days, the rally added $275 billion to Bitcoin's market capitalization.

The move brought heavier exchange inflows as traders took profits. About 53,000 BTC reached trading platforms, including 17,800 BTC sent to Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Notably, all Binance inflows came from short-term holders who had bought their Bitcoin less than one day earlier, while long-term holders — defined as six-month holders — sent no BTC to Binance.

Darkfost described the movements as speculative and non-structural. The 17,800 BTC Binance inflow marked the largest such inflow since February 2026.

Strategy Returns to Bitcoin Profit

The exchange flows came as Bitcoin posted its strongest three-day move in the data reviewed. Strategy — the publicly traded company formerly known as MicroStrategy that holds Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset — and executive chairman Michael Saylor moved back into profit on their Bitcoin holdings, with their unrealized profit reaching $1.87 billion, according to Darkfost. The position had remained underwater since May 27; an unrealized gain exists on paper unless holdings are actually sold.

The latest Bitcoin move therefore coincided with renewed exchange activity and a rapid change in Strategy's unrealized position.