Analyst Eyes $82,000 Bitcoin Rally if Fed Holds Rates After Clarity Act Stalls in Senate
Key Takeaways
- •The Clarity Act, aimed at creating a digital asset market structure framework that divides oversight between the SEC and CFTC, stalled after failing to win the 60 Senate votes needed to end debate.
- •Markets had priced roughly 93% odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of the decision, leaving only a small minority expecting rates to stay unchanged, according to Ali Charts.
- •Ali Charts projected that a rate hold could send Bitcoin rebounding from $75,000 to above $82,000, though he labeled the forecast unconventional rather than the consensus view.
- •If a rate hike triggers a sell-off, Ali Charts identified the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $71,200, an on-chain measure of recent buyers' cost basis, as his next accumulation zone.
- •Ripple said the Senate outcome leaves XRP's legal clarity intact, citing its 2023 court victory over the SEC, more than $150 million spent on regulatory clarity, and a March 2026 SEC-CFTC interpretation naming XRP a digital commodity.
Bitcoin's next major catalyst has shifted from Congress to the Federal Reserve after the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate, with analyst Ali Charts outlining a potential rally toward $82,000 if the central bank leaves rates unchanged. Ripple, meanwhile, said the vote does not alter XRP's established legal status.
Clarity Act Vote Sets Up Fed Decision
The Clarity Act failed to advance after falling short of the 60 votes required in the Senate to cut off debate and bring the bill to a final floor vote. The legislation is aimed at establishing a market structure framework for digital assets, clarifying oversight responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. Ripple called the outcome a missed opportunity for consumers and the digital asset industry, citing implications for U.S. competitiveness.
According to Ali Charts, markets had priced roughly 93% odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike — equivalent to 0.25 percentage points — ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with only a small minority expecting rates to remain unchanged. The analyst, however, laid out a different scenario: a rate hold could surprise markets and prompt fast repositioning across risk assets.
Ali Charts Sets Bitcoin Levels
In a post on X, Ali Charts said Bitcoin could rebound from $75,000 and break above $82,000 if the Fed holds rates steady. He characterized the forecast as a wild prediction rather than the consensus view.
He also outlined a downside scenario in the event a rate hike triggers a sell-off. The analyst said he would watch the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $71,200 — a widely followed on-chain gauge of recent buyers' aggregate cost basis — as his next accumulation zone if Bitcoin declines.
Ali Charts additionally linked the rate decision to political pressure ahead of the November midterms, saying another hike could create more economic pressure.
Ripple Defends XRP's Legal Position
In a statement published on its official blog, Ripple said the Senate vote does not change XRP's established legal clarity. The company pointed to its 2023 court victory in the SEC's lawsuit over XRP and the more than $150 million it has spent seeking regulatory clarity. It also cited a March 2026 joint interpretation from the SEC and CFTC naming XRP a digital commodity.
Ripple said it will continue advocating for market structure legislation and engaging with policymakers, adding that the SEC and CFTC will have important roles in rulemaking following the setback. The company stressed that its business across payments, stablecoins, and institutional markets remains unchanged.
With the legislative effort paused for now, attention turns to the Fed's rate decision and the next steps for digital asset market structure legislation in Washington.
