Key points

• Bitcoin has held $76,380 through several tests.
• CME FedWatch showed an 86.5% probability of a rate hike when checked on September 14.
• Sixteen of 20 listed forecasters expect a September hike.
• Goldman Sachs now projects a 25-basis-point increase.
• Updated Federal Reserve projections could shape the market’s response.

Goldman Sachs joins September-hike expectations

Goldman Sachs has changed its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting from no policy change to a 25-basis-point rate increase, The Wall Street Journal reported. Goldman said the latest Consumer Price Index data only slightly changed its core personal consumption expenditures forecast, but concluded that keeping rates unchanged while markets expected a hike could itself unsettle investors. The report is available through The Wall Street Journal.

The forecast changed after August inflation data strengthened the case for tighter policy. The latest CPI report showed prices rising 0.4% during the month, while annual headline and core inflation stood at 3.4% and 2.4%, respectively. Further background on the data was published by Coindoo.

The Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting will also include updated economic projections. The policy statement is scheduled for September 16 at 18:00 UTC, followed by the chair’s press conference 30 minutes later. The Federal Reserve’s meeting calendar lists the schedule. The projections may indicate whether officials view the September decision as a one-off response to inflation or as part of a longer tightening path.

Futures markets favour a hike

The CME FedWatch Tool showed an 86.5% implied probability that the Fed would raise its target range by 25 basis points, from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%, when checked on September 14. A decision to hold rates had a 13.5% probability. The outcome was therefore not certain, although futures markets clearly favoured one increase.

A table attributed to The Wall Street Journal and shared by CryptosRUs lists 20 forecasters, 16 of whom expect the next Fed move to be a September hike. The table’s 50- and 75-basis-point figures refer to the total policy change expected during 2026, rather than the size of the September decision. It therefore indicates that some forecasters expect additional tightening after September; it should not be interpreted as a consensus for a 50- or 75-basis-point increase at the upcoming meeting.

INSIGHT: Wall Street is overwhelmingly leaning toward a September Fed hike. 👀 Most major banks now expect +50 bps, with Bank of America and RBC at +75 bps. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are more cautious at +25 bps. pic.twitter.com/QHIwW24Umr — CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) September 12, 2026

The post was published by CryptosR_Us on X.

For Bitcoin, the distinction is between one expected increase and a Fed message indicating that several more could follow. A decision to hold rates would require futures markets to reprice quickly. A 25-basis-point increase matching FedWatch expectations could produce a narrower initial reaction, but risk assets could still face pressure if the projections or the chair’s press conference point to further increases later this year.

Bitcoin is approaching that policy uncertainty near the first support level established during its latest rally.

Bitcoin’s first retracement is under pressure

Bitcoin traded near $77,300 at the time of writing on the daily BTC/USD chart, after making several moves toward $76,380. That level represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the June low near $57,766 to the August high around $82,130. The relevant BTC/USD chart tracks the pair.

The latest session reached roughly $76,480 before Bitcoin recovered above the level. The response indicates that buying activity remained present near support, but it does not confirm a durable base. Each revisit may attract demand, while repeated tests can also reduce the bids that have supported the level so far.

This structure leaves Bitcoin with limited room at $76,380. A break below the level would make the 38.2% retracement the next reference point. A recovery through the descending trendline would indicate that the pullback was losing control of the daily chart.

Bitcoin has historically reacted to surprises as well as hikes

Bitcoin’s 2022-23 record shows that the surprise surrounding a rate decision often mattered more than the decision itself. In a historical comparison of Fed hikes and Bitcoin published by Coindoo, the March 2022 increase produced a muted immediate response because it was widely anticipated. By contrast, the June 2022 shift from an expected 50 basis points to 75 basis points was considerably more disruptive, as markets had to reprice the likely policy path within days.

The pattern later moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin rose through expected rate increases in early 2023 as investors focused on a slower pace of tightening and the possibility that the cycle was approaching its end.

A 25-basis-point move in line with futures would resolve the immediate policy question, but it would leave the path after September open. The updated projections, inflation forecasts and the chair’s comments about later meetings are more likely to change that expectation.

Fed communication will test Bitcoin support

The meeting could affect Bitcoin in several ways. A 25-basis-point increase matching futures expectations may leave traders focused on whether $76,380 continues to attract buyers. A hold, or guidance pointing to more tightening than expected, would require a faster reassessment of the current trading range.

A sustained move above $76,380 would keep the correction contained near the first retracement. A daily close below that level would shift attention to $72,820. If selling extended further, the $69,950-$71,170 support cluster would become relevant.

Traders will focus on the rate path indicated by the projections, inflation forecasts and the chair’s guidance on subsequent decisions. This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Source: Coindoo.