U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive sessions of net inflows last week, totaling $853.5 million, according to SoSoValue data. The streak reversed a $61.5 million net outflow the previous week and lifted cumulative net inflows since the funds' launch to $52.18 billion.

BlackRock's IBIT absorbed approximately $690 million, accounting for about 80% of the week's total, according to Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies. The concentration underscores IBIT's outsized role since the spot Bitcoin ETF cohort began trading, with the fund run by the world's largest asset manager consistently capturing the lion's share of allocations. On Friday alone, IBIT drew $86.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC brought in $41 million, while Invesco's BTCO shed $19.4 million and VanEck's HODL lost $10.6 million. Momentum slowed into the weekend, with daily inflows declining from $128.7 million on Thursday to $98.9 million on Friday. The funds closed the week holding $79.5 billion in assets, equivalent to roughly 6.1% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

Bitcoin traded at around $65,100 on Monday morning, up 0.4% on the day, CoinGecko data shows — approximately 48% below its October 2025 record.

Institutional Flows Return as AI Equities Cool

"It shows that after the AI craze briefly entered a pullback period, institutional funds have started buying Bitcoin again," Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt. He said the flows likely reflect a combination of portfolio rebalancing and basis trading — a strategy that exploits price gaps between spot Bitcoin and its futures contracts to capture low-risk yield.

Sun pointed to weakening U.S. employment data and diminishing rate-hike expectations as the more significant macroeconomic catalysts. Friday's figures revealed that employers cut 23,000 jobs in July against forecasts for a 95,000 gain. CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to 40% from 55% on Friday, then rose to 46% on Monday.

Softening AI-linked equities have loosened the pull on global risk capital, Sun said, redirecting money toward less crowded assets. He identified $60,000 to $61,000 as a support level the market has repeatedly tested.

Bitcoin remains in a death cross, a technical pattern in which the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day line that traders traditionally read as a bearish signal.

Sun cautioned against interpreting the week as a turning point. The inflows are "not enough to support a trend reversal," he said, noting that hike odds have not disappeared and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated.

CoinShares: Cycle Lows "Probably Behind Us"

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill struck a more optimistic tone. "Our view remains that the cycle lows are probably now behind us," he wrote in an update on Friday, while cautioning that "this does not imply an immediate return to strong upside." He expects Bitcoin to trade range-bound for two to three months, potentially toward $80,000.

Butterfill cited three consecutive weeks of whale accumulation following approximately $40 billion in whale selling since October 2025. He also noted $1.05 billion in inflows into digital asset investment products globally last week — a broader measure than U.S. Bitcoin ETFs alone — marking a fifth straight positive week. That pattern "increasingly resembles capitulation followed by early re-accumulation," he wrote.

A move toward $100,000 would require "a clearer deterioration in employment data and a more meaningful reduction in rate expectations," Butterfill added.

Lower rate expectations, renewed inflows and three weeks of whale accumulation suggest @Bitcoin's cycle lows may be behind us. But a sustained breakout still needs clearer macro support. @jbutterfill explains why in this week's Market Update. See first comment. pic.twitter.com/yh8tBYO0Pa — CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) August 7, 2026

The Coldcard Correlation Theory

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas floated an alternative explanation. IBIT, FBTC and several other funds have attracted money every day since the Coldcard exploit began draining Bitcoin from air-gapped wallets, he tweeted, "making it hard not to see causation in the correlation." He called it the third-best week since October and said it "would be ironic, but somehow on brand" if a theft from cold storage marked the start of the next rally.

The bitcoin ETFs just clocked their best week in flows (about $1b) since April and the 3rd best week since the good ole days were ruined by the Silent IPO last Oct. IBIT, FBTC and few others saw inflows every single day since Coldcard hack, making it hard not to see causation in… pic.twitter.com/5GnmkvD5g4 — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 8, 2026

Decrypt reported earlier this month that exchange deposits composed of sub-10 BTC transfers reached 7,300 BTC on July 31 — the highest level since February. CryptoQuant said holders appeared to be moving coins for safety, though it noted the connection to the Coldcard incident was not certain.

What Could Break the Range

Wundke described the week as the funds' strongest since April and said investors are treating current prices as a "bottom buying" opportunity. He expects little movement before mid-September, when the Clarity Act — legislation that would establish a federal regulatory framework defining how digital assets are overseen by the SEC and CFTC — gets another legislative window and the Federal Reserve holds its next meeting. He expressed doubt that Republicans can secure the necessary votes in time.

Polymarket users priced the bill's chances of becoming law this year at 21% on Monday, up from the 14% Butterfill cited on August 6.

Both Wundke and Butterfill looked to the Middle East as a potential catalyst. "Any realistic Iran peace deal would dampen inflation fears and very much temper the mood for rate rises," Wundke said, calling that the likelier trigger for a market he described as oversold. For now, he added, it "mostly feels like 'Groundhog Day,'" with holiday malaise keeping trading volumes thin.