Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $78,000 following Wednesday's Wall Street open after US inflation data came in above expectations, extending its failure to reclaim the $80,000 level.

Key points:

• Bitcoin saw further downside after US PCE inflation data came in 0.1% higher than expected for July.
• Markets await Nvidia's Q2 earnings release as Wednesday's next potential volatility catalyst.
• BTC price analysis warns that gains of over 25% this week could be forming a bear market relief rally.

Hotter-than-expected PCE data pressures Bitcoin

Data from TradingView tracked daily BTC price losses of up to 1%, with US stocks also opening lower and gold breaking below $4,600 per ounce.

The downside came after the July print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — known as the Federal Reserve's "preferred" inflation gauge — hit 3.7% year-on-year, above the anticipated 3.6%. Because the Fed calibrates monetary policy against a 2% PCE inflation target, each monthly print feeds directly into expectations for the interest-rate path — a variable closely watched by traders of rate-sensitive risk assets such as Bitcoin and technology stocks.

"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2%," the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) official release confirmed.

Markets appeared disappointed by the results following June's unexpected drop in PCE gains, which included the first month-on-month decrease in six years.

"US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed's 2.0% target," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in a post on X.

The PCE numbers arrive a day before the Fed's annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, with Chair Kevin Warsh due to deliver the keynote speech on Friday. The Wyoming gathering has historically served as a venue for Fed chairs to signal shifts in policy thinking, and Warsh's address will be parsed for any guidance on the rate path in the wake of July's reading.

Investors are also watching for Nvidia's Q2 earnings report, scheduled for later on Wednesday and viewed as the next potential short-term volatility catalyst for risk assets. As one of the heaviest weightings in the S&P 500 and a bellwether for the artificial intelligence trade, the chipmaker's results routinely ripple through broad equity sentiment — a link crypto traders track given Bitcoin's frequent tendency to move alongside technology stocks during macro-driven sessions. The technology giant is expected to record $92.3 billion in quarterly revenue, including CPU revenue that analysts at Raymond James forecast could grow from 3% to 5% of NVDA's total by 2028, expanding the company's addressable market.

Related: Supply absorption 'key question' as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis

Analyst sets key targets for BTC price monthly close

Examining recent price action, Bitcoin market participants turned their attention to the upcoming August monthly candle close.

Urging a cautious approach, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD was in danger of continuing its series of lower highs in place since October 2025.

"A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend," he commented on X alongside a chart showing a downward-sloping resistance trend line.

Rekt Capital added that unless the cycle of lower highs is broken, Bitcoin's rebound of more than 25% over the past week could still be classed as a "relief rally" within the broader bear market — trader shorthand for a sharp rebound that unfolds inside an intact downtrend rather than confirming a trend change. He singled out the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,251 as a further trend line to reclaim and hold going forward, noting that Bitcoin's last monthly close above it came in October 2025. The 50-week EMA smooths nearly a year of weekly price data into a single long-horizon trend gauge that is closely followed in crypto chart analysis.