Bitcoin Drops Below $64,000 as Bond Yields and Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Weigh on BTC
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin dropped more than 1.6% on Friday as selling pressure accelerated after the Wall Street open, pushing BTC/USD toward the $64,000 level.
- •Rising US Treasury yields, particularly the two-year yield at 4.31%, were identified by analysts as a primary driver behind the broader risk-asset sell-off.
- •CME FedWatch data showed markets expecting the Fed to hold rates steady next week while pricing in a 0.25% hike for September.
- •Crypto traders observed large bid liquidity layers on Binance that some characterized as a recurring 'plunge protection team' pattern seen earlier in the year.
- •Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin's rejection from the 50-month EMA at $65,950 continues to mirror price behavior from the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 1.6% on Friday, with its latest price correction accelerating after Wall Street opened and BTC/USD moving toward the $64,000 level.
The decline came as multiple macroeconomic pressures weighed on risk assets. Rising US bond yields supported a more hawkish shift in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, while crypto market analysts pointed to order-book activity on Binance that they described as a returning Bitcoin “plunge protection team.” Higher yields can tighten financial conditions and make speculative assets less attractive relative to interest-bearing alternatives, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to shifts in rate expectations during periods of weak risk appetite.
US bond yields rise as analysts flag pressure on risk assets
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $64,000 as buyers struggled to defend recent gains. Geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic headwinds added pressure across crypto markets as demand for risk assets weakened.
Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said rising US Treasury yields were a central driver of the sell-off.
“Massive moves are underway across the yield curve despite a weaker than expected consumer inflation report,” Mosaic wrote, referring to the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Mosaic said the two-year Treasury yield was especially important because of its relationship with expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. The firm said risk assets were being affected as markets priced in the possibility of further rate increases.
“The 2-year yield that tends to lead fed funds is now at 4.31% and sits well above the Federal Reserve’s target range,” Mosaic added.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that markets still expected the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged next week. At the same time, traders were pricing in a 0.25% rate increase in September, one of two increases expected before the end of 2026. FedWatch probabilities are derived from futures pricing, so they are watched as a real-time gauge of market expectations rather than as a statement of Fed policy.
Mosaic said those expectations were “placing downward pressure on stock indexes.”
Traders point to Binance order-book activity near Bitcoin lows
In ongoing market monitoring, crypto trader Killa said Bitcoin was repeating a familiar short-term trading setup.
“Textbook setup on $BTC. Seen this occur numerous times,” Killa said on X, referring back to a post from early June in which the trader identified what they called a “plunge protection team” active on Binance, the largest crypto exchange.
X post: https://x.com/KillaXBT/status/2080625017193156875
A chart shared with the post showed layers of bid liquidity below the spot price. The analysis suggested that the owners of those orders may not have intended for the positions to be filled. Because Binance is a major venue for Bitcoin spot and derivatives trading, visible liquidity around key levels is closely tracked by short-term traders, though order-book conditions can change quickly.
Analytics account Wealthmanager also focused on the $64,000 level, warning that a break below it would “invalidate” the low-timeframe market structure.
X post: https://x.com/Wealthmanager/status/2080642643600503003
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, reiterated the view that BTC/USD was continuing to mirror behavior from the 2022 bear market, with price action rejecting from the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,950.
“Bitcoin hasn’t really offered any evidence to the contrary. Still following 2022 historical tendencies,” Rekt Capital summarized.
X post: https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2080627848721698825