Exchange spot flow data for Bitcoin [$BTC] revealed that approximately $211.24 million worth of BTC moved into exchanges over the past week. An analysis of the circulating supply in profit indicated that the current market regime sits between bottom discovery and liquidity accumulation.

Market sentiment throughout 2026 has been predominantly pessimistic. The Fear and Greed Index has registered readings between 28 and 40, while Bitcoin has experienced elevated short-term volatility since March. The $65K price level has served as a significant resistance point for buyers, and capital inflows along with fresh liquidity have remained scarce. According to AMBCrypto, two key factors suggest further downside may be possible.

Whale Activity and Elevated Coin Days Destroyed Signal Caution

The 7-day moving average of the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric spiked to levels unmatched at any point in 2026, initially appearing to signal panic similar to the February sell-off. CDD tracks the volume of Bitcoin reactivated after long periods of dormancy, making it a widely used proxy for long-term holder behavior—elevated readings often coincide with selling intent. However, the Coldcard hack likely contributed substantially to this CDD increase, and it may have also prompted unaffected long-term holders to relocate their tokens for security purposes. The CDD spike should therefore be interpreted within this context, and whether CDD normalizes in the coming weeks will help distinguish security-driven repositioning from genuine distribution.

The exchange whale ratio, which measures the proportion of the top 10 largest inflow transactions relative to total exchange inflows, showed a steady decline during the 2022 bear market across both the 30-day and 7-day moving averages. An increase in the whale ratio indicates that large holders account for a greater share of exchange inflows, a signal typically associated with heightened selling pressure.

During the 2022–23 bear market, the exchange whale ratio was declining, inflow activity was more broadly distributed among smaller Bitcoin holders, and whales were relatively inactive. In 2026, however, the exchange whale ratio has remained elevated. A gradual reduction in whale inflow activity would likely create more favorable conditions for a market recovery.

Rising Open Interest Without Matching Spot Demand Raises Squeeze Risk

As Bitcoin partially recovered its losses in April and May, speculative traders re-entered the market anticipating a sustained rebound. Those expectations were eliminated following the June reset. Fresh capital flows have not been sufficient to support a recovery, and prevailing pessimistic sentiment has reflected the doubt and fear still present in the cryptocurrency market.

Open Interest—the total notional value of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures, that remain unsettled—has been climbing even as spot-market buying lags. This divergence means the market is becoming increasingly leveraged on positioning that lacks the backing of genuine spot demand. Rising Open Interest without a corresponding increase in spot demand could create a squeeze scenario for BTC's price action, where cascading forced liquidations amplify downward moves if sentiment deteriorates further.

Key Takeaways

Coin Days Destroyed recorded a significant spike in recent days, though the Coldcard exploit may largely account for this movement. Elevated exchange whale ratios, combined with a gradual rise in Open Interest, have pointed to the potential for further selling pressure.