Bitcoin (BTC) enters the final week of October battling to defend the $80,000 level, with a packed calendar of United States macro data and corporate earnings set to shape sentiment across risk markets.

Key points:

• Markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates in their current 3.75-4% range at Wednesday's meeting, while Brent crude cools to $110 per barrel.
• South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index extends its decline ahead of a major round of US corporate earnings results.
• Bitcoin is on track to close October down 4%, mirroring its 2025 performance, as $80,000 support looks fragile.

Markets price Fed pause as oil holds above $100

The US Federal Reserve takes center stage for macro analysts this week, with the next move on the federal funds rate due on Wednesday. Attention will focus on the rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and on the language used by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at accompanying press conference.

There is little suspense over the outcome: markets assign more than 90% odds to rates staying within the current 3.75-4% range, according to FedWatch data, which also shows consensus favoring a 0.25% hike at the December FOMC meeting.

Economist Robin Brooks argued that such an alignment of expectations amounts to a gift for Warsh, sparing him the need to fight external demands for a change of course.

"After very contentious Fed meetings earlier in 2026, this week's meeting gets zero interest in markets, which price only 12% odds of a hike. That's nothing versus how markets tried to push Warsh into hiking back in July. A temporary reprieve for Warsh," he summarized.

In separate analysis last week, Brooks saw a pause as all but inevitable, even amid rising oil prices and mounting concerns over military escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude hit $117 per barrel on Friday — its highest level since March 19 — before easing back to around $110 on Monday. Even a spike to $125, he continued, would not force the Fed's hand.

"The debt crisis in France would escalate sharply, anxiety around all the AI and data center debt would increase and the S&P 500 would tumble. That just isn't a setting where the Fed is itching to hike," Brooks wrote.

"If anything, financial conditions would be tightening sharply, so the last thing you'd want to do is hike."

Fresh US macro data arrives on Thursday in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's "preferred" inflation gauge. Last month, PCE printed below expectations at 3.4% year-on-year, though analysts explained that the drop stemmed from changes to how certain index elements are calculated.

KOSPI struggles as US tech earnings approach

Nerves over the outlook for the artificial intelligence sector continued to weigh on equities on Monday, ahead of the week's first Wall Street open.

After attempting to recoup part of last week's losses, South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index closed down 1.5% on Monday at 5,469 points. On Friday, the tech-heavy index sank as low as 5,308 points — a level last seen in late July — following significant selling in technology stocks as foreign capital sought safety.

Stronger-than-expected US earnings reports last week ultimately failed to lift the mood, with attention instead turning to Tesla's reduced Q3 capital expenditure. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished Friday at 25,955 points, its lowest daily close since Aug. 3.

Speaking to CNBC on Monday, JPMorgan Asset Management's Raisah Rasid was unfazed by the state of the AI trade.

"It's really about investors thinking, 'Look, we're not rewarding capex anymore; what we are rewarding is return on capital. I think that's what's happening with AI,'" she said.

More Q3 results are due this week: Microsoft and Alphabet both report after the market close on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday. In total, roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies will report during the week, and Thursday also brings the release of US Q3 GDP numbers.

"Uptober" hopes meet 4% month-to-date losses

Bitcoin is on track to end October down 4% if the monthly candle closes near current levels around $80,000.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs break 2-week outflow streak with $301M comeback

Data from CoinGlass shows that despite BTC/USD averaging October gains of 26.1% since 2010 — a record that earned the month the nickname "Uptober" — this year and last have both bucked the trend. After falling 3.9% in October 2025, Bitcoin went on to shed a further 17.5% in November, again defying historical patterns that produced average November returns of 35%.

Almost $150 million of long positions were liquidated within two hours on Saturday as Bitcoin dipped to $79,145. The $80,000 level failed to hold on lower time frames despite its status as a psychological boundary. Order-book data highlights a $73 million wall of bids keeping price above $79,300, with asks centered around $81,000.

Market participants are growing increasingly cautious about a rebound under current macro conditions. Benjamin Cowen, founder of crypto platform Into the Cryptoverse, described Bitcoin's trips to $87,000 in late September and early October as a "fakeout."

BTC/USD should continue to see weakness through the end of the year, he told X followers on Monday, citing historical precedent and pointing to downside pressure around US midterm election years.

As Cointelegraph reported, the resistance zone around $87,000 contains important price points: the 2026 yearly open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165.