Bitcoin is exhibiting patterns consistent with historical market bottoms, though analysts caution that selling pressure has not yet fully subsided.

The 3–6 month holder cost basis has fallen below the 1–2 year holder average — a crossover that appeared during bear-market bottom phases in 2015, 2019, and 2022, according to crypto analyst Doctor Profit (X post). This metric, derived from Bitcoin's Realized Price by Age Bands, tracks the average on-chain acquisition cost of coins grouped by how long they have sat in the same wallets. When shorter-term holders' cost basis drops below longer-term holders', it typically signals that recent buyers capitulated at a loss while coins migrated to stronger hands. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that seller exhaustion remains below levels recorded in previous bear markets, leaving a confirmed bottom uncertain (X post).

Historic Cost-Basis Crossover Returns

Doctor Profit highlighted that the crossover shows newer buyers likely sold at a loss before coins shifted toward longer-term holders. Bitcoin is currently trading below both cohorts' average cost basis, according to the indicator.

However, the analyst noted that previous crossovers did not produce immediate price reversals. In past cycles, Bitcoin traded sideways for months while the market established a base. Doctor Profit stated he has been accumulating Bitcoin between $54,000 and $64,000 over several weeks, describing the current environment as a possible bear-market bottom and accumulation phase.

Glassnode: Seller Exhaustion Has Not Reached Historical Thresholds

Glassnode separately reported declining selling pressure but refrained from confirming a historical bottom. The firm's 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant — which combines realized losses and volatility to gauge whether sellers are running out of conviction — has not reached the levels observed during prior Bitcoin bear markets.

According to Glassnode, sellers appear increasingly exhausted, though demand remains muted. The firm indicated it is continuing to monitor whether selling activity decelerates further, leaving seller exhaustion as an observed trend rather than a historically confirmed signal.

Miners Continue Reducing BTC Reserves

Miner holdings offer an additional gauge of selling pressure. Analyst Darkfost noted that miners held approximately 1.44 million BTC in November 2019, compared with roughly 1.19 million BTC today — a decline driven by reduced block rewards following successive Bitcoin halvings, most recently the April 2024 event that cut per-block issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.

Greater market liquidity has also made it easier for miners to sell BTC to fund operational costs. Some large mining pools have begun redirecting computing power toward artificial intelligence workloads as Bitcoin mining economics have weakened, Darkfost added. This transition has contributed to recent miner selling activity, including transactions involving Marathon Digital Holdings (Mara).

Darkfost concluded that miners' selling power is diminishing as their BTC reserves continue to contract, though the broader trend underscores shifting economics across the mining sector — a dynamic analysts are watching alongside the cost-basis and seller-exhaustion indicators for converging evidence of a durable bottom.