Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, according to digital asset manager Grayscale, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from over 60% to around 33%.

The firm says a renewed focus on scarcity and monetary independence is driving the shift. According to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has declined from more than 60% to roughly 33%. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together on a scale from -1 to 1, so the figures point to a tighter link with gold than with technology stocks.

The changing relationship suggests investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than a technology-linked risk asset — a framing that places it alongside gold, long held as a hedge against currency depreciation. Bitcoin’s protocol caps its total supply at 21 million coins, a fixed-supply design that underpins the scarcity case. The shift comes as market participants reassess Bitcoin’s role amid changing macroeconomic conditions, and the data points to evolving investor sentiment toward the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Debasement Trade Returns

Pandl believes the shift reflects renewed attention on Bitcoin’s fixed supply, monetary independence, and store-of-value characteristics. He argued that the return of the “debasement trade” — driven by concerns over expanding government debt and persistent fiscal deficits — is encouraging investors to seek scarce assets whose supply cannot be expanded at will by governments.

With U.S. federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, Bitcoin and gold are increasingly being viewed as potential hedges against long-term currency debasement. The trend may signal a changing market narrative for digital assets.

The analysis was highlighted on X by crypto news account Wu Blockchain:

Grayscale: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold rises above 50% as “debasement trade” returns

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from over 60% to roughly 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen from near… pic.twitter.com/gJjTcAYaFH

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 28, 2026

A New Market Regime?

The latest Bitcoin–gold correlation data suggests macroeconomic factors are playing a greater role in shaping investor behavior. Bitcoin’s investor base has broadened since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, and flows into such products are among the institutional channels market watchers track. If Bitcoin continues trading more closely with gold than with technology stocks, it could strengthen its position as a digital store of value. Because these correlations are measured over a rolling 90-day window, current readings reflect the trailing three months and can shift as conditions change. Investors will continue watching macroeconomic developments, fiscal policy, and institutional flows to determine whether this shift represents the beginning of a longer-term market regime.