Bitcoin's fourth quarter has so far failed to live up to bullish expectations. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin ($BTC) is down more than 3.5% in October, closing in on last October's 3.95% decline. With the month approaching its end, attention is already shifting to November — and there is reason for caution. In November 2025, $BTC fell more than 17%, recording its biggest monthly drop since November 2019. The question now is whether history will repeat itself, or whether Bitcoin can finally break the bearish November pattern.

Three overhanging factors — a historically bearish November, mounting ETF outflows, and a macro backdrop of rising rate-hike odds and surging oil prices — now frame the debate over Bitcoin's near-term direction.

Caution may already be creeping into the market through ETF flows. As AMBCrypto reported, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $625 in daily net outflows, marking their largest single-day outflow since June 25, when withdrawals hit $696 million. That print carries extra weight because spot ETF creations and redemptions are disclosed each trading day, making daily flows one of the clearest running gauges of institutional demand. It represents a significant change in institutional positioning, particularly with November just around the corner.

Rate-Hike Odds Climb on Inflation Concerns

From a macro perspective, the shift may be more than random market noise. According to FedWatch data, the odds of a rate hike have climbed above 10%, up from 5.5% only a day earlier. Rate expectations draw close attention from crypto traders because Federal Reserve policy shapes the liquidity conditions in which risk assets trade. With U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September — still well above the Fed's 2% target — the possibility of a rate hike may look less far-fetched as market expectations change. If the odds climb further, Bitcoin could face another macro headwind heading into November.

That naturally brings the focus to the bigger question: is Bitcoin heading toward another November sell-off like the one in 2025, or could the market break the pattern this time?

Rising Oil Prices Add to the Pressure

The rise in rate-hike odds may be signaling more than concerns over September's inflation data. It may also reflect a growing sense of uncertainty about what lies ahead. Brent crude has jumped above $117 a barrel for the first time since March 19, as fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran fuel supply concerns — leaving oil just $2 away from breaking its yearly high. The odds of U.S. crude prices topping $110 a barrel by the end of the month have surged to a new high of 34%. Energy prices feed directly into that inflation picture, since fuel costs pass through to transport and production expenses across the economy.

At the macro level, a continued rise in oil prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which could make a rate hike difficult to ignore. On the other hand, CryptoQuant's historical data suggests that rising oil prices have often coincided with weaker $BTC momentum. If the trend persists, Bitcoin may see increased selling pressure in the coming months.

In essence, macro FUD could be setting the stage for another Bitcoin sell-off in November. Against this backdrop, the ETF outflows imply that some "strategic" investors are already hedging their bets as rate-hike odds increase, inflation remains high, the odds of further oil price gains rise, and the bearish November pattern comes back into focus. The checkpoints from here are straightforward to track: each day's ETF flow report, the latest FedWatch odds, and whether Brent closes the $2 gap to its yearly high — data points that will shape the debate over whether the bearish November pattern repeats.

Source: CryptoNewsNet