The debate over when Bitcoin’s current bear market may end remains divided between two main views. One side continues to rely on the traditional four-year cycle framework, while the other argues that Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom.

Grayscale has aligned more closely with the second view, saying broader macroeconomic signals may now be more important than the historical halving-based cycle. The distinction matters because the four-year model is largely tied to Bitcoin’s programmed supply schedule, while a macro-driven view treats BTC as part of a broader risk-asset environment shaped by liquidity, interest rates, and economic growth expectations.

Macro Conditions Versus Market Cycles

Supporters of the four-year cycle theory view Bitcoin halving events as the primary driver of long-term price movements and expect the current downturn to resemble earlier bear markets. Historically, BTC has tended to bottom around one year after a cyclical peak and about two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging roughly 80%.

Under that framework, Bitcoin could still have further downside and might not reach a bottom until September or October. Grayscale, however, said it supports an alternative interpretation: that BTC has matured as an asset and is increasingly influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions, similar to other major asset classes.

The firm noted that previous Bitcoin bear markets have coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates. It also said this year’s downturn has developed alongside changing expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates. Real interest rates are closely watched because they reflect inflation-adjusted borrowing costs and can influence demand for assets that do not generate cash flows.

In Grayscale’s macro-driven framework, Bitcoin’s price could find a bottom when those broader economic conditions begin to improve. The firm added that if the Federal Reserve avoids additional rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC may already have reached its low, even if the four-year cycle model suggests a deeper decline is still possible.

Grayscale is not alone in suggesting that Bitcoin could be nearing, or may already have passed, a turning point. Still, the competing frameworks point to different signals for traders to monitor: cycle-based analysts are focused on historical timing and drawdown patterns, while macro-focused observers are watching Fed policy, real rates, and growth data.

Analysts Point to Possible Early Bottom

Crypto trader Killa also said Bitcoin’s market structure indicates the bottom may already be in, though he remains “50/50” because of the timing of the cycle. The trader said BTC has now “swept the dead cat base low” and completed the same five-wave corrective structure observed across previous bear markets.

However, Killa noted that earlier bear markets took about 365 days to reach their final trough, while the current cycle would have bottomed after roughly 260 days. Even so, he said the “mistake is assuming” cycle lengths never change and argued that Bitcoin is more likely to form higher lows than to make significant new lows.

Earlier this week, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin’s monthly chart is showing the same combination of technical signals that appeared near the end of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. Martinez acknowledged that on-chain indicators such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a move down toward the $40,000-$50,000 range. Still, he said the current technical setup has historically marked a dominant accumulation zone with a favorable risk-to-reward profile for spot BTC buyers.

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit made a similar argument, warning that investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could miss the market’s next move. Although Bitcoin could still revisit the $54,000 area, the analyst said he does not expect a decline below $50,000 and believes gradual accumulation already presents an attractive risk-reward profile. Together, the comments show that while some analysts see evidence of an early bottom, the debate remains dependent on whether Bitcoin follows its historical post-halving rhythm or responds more strongly to macro conditions.