Glassnode's latest weekly report characterizes Bitcoin as being in the early stages of an uptrend that has yet to attract broad market participation, with on-chain support intact even as momentum indicators show signs of strain. The most pronounced shift in demand has come from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, where institutional appetite has cooled markedly after a strong surge. Since those funds began trading in January 2024, their daily flow totals have given the market a public, running read on institutional demand.

After posting net inflows of approximately $1 billion on each of September 21 and September 22 — the strongest two-day stretch in almost a year — US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows decline on every subsequent trading day, shrinking to just $24 million by September 28.

That cooling of institutional demand coincides with a formidable barrier overhead. On Binance's spot order book, a dense concentration of sell orders has accumulated between $85,000 and $85,500, tripling in size since it first appeared on September 24. Order-book walls like this one mark price zones where enough resting sell orders sit that buyers must absorb them before the market can clear higher, which is why traders track them as visible markers of overhead supply. The report identifies this wall as the most critical near-term level: price has pushed into its lower boundary repeatedly without breaking through. A sustained move above $85,500 would clear the largest visible resistance and, together with a rebound in ETF inflows and rising volume, confirm that the uptrend is broadening.

Below the current price, the first key support is the True Market Mean — Glassnode's estimate of the average acquisition price of active investors — at $77,200, a level that matters because cost-basis models of this kind mark where the average holder's position flips between profit and loss. A daily close below that level would end the current stretch of strength and signal a weakening trend. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits lower at $73,300, leaving recent buyers roughly 13% in profit.

The rally also lacks volume confirmation. Total daily trading volume across spot exchanges and US spot ETFs averages approximately $6.4 billion, near the bottom of the range observed since the ETFs launched — which the report characterizes as evidence that the advance remains speculative rather than broadly supported.

Selling pressure, while still light relative to past cycle tops, is changing hands. Long-term holders — wallets holding coins for more than 155 days — nearly doubled their realized profits in the week to September 29, with their share of total realized gains rising from 34% to 55%. Should profit-taking accelerate toward levels seen at the 2024 and 2025 peaks, it would indicate holders are actively distributing into strength.

Bitcoin is holding up, but it has hit a wall of sellers at $85K. Our new Week On-chain maps what it would take to break through.

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 30, 6

Source post: https://x.com/glassnode/status/2105306775679541311?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Altcoins Advance Without Froth as Bitcoin's Edge Over Stocks Narrows

Bitcoin has recently outperformed traditional markets, beating the S&P 500 in more than half of the last 30 trading sessions — a ratio that turned positive on September 24 for the first time since mid-May. That edge narrowed this week, however: between September 22 and September 29, Bitcoin fell 2.9% against the index's 1.2%, and the cryptocurrency declined more sharply on the S&P 500's down days.

Altcoins, meanwhile, have outpaced Bitcoin over the past month, with most of the top 500 tokens posting larger 30-day gains. That advance stalled this week, though: only 6% of altcoins were trading at 30-day highs, down from 49% on September 22.

Notably, the move higher has occurred without a buildup of excess. Only 19% of altcoins currently pay perpetual futures funding above the neutral rate of 0.01% — far below the readings recorded at every previous altcoin top — and open interest has risen in dollar terms but fallen when measured in coins, indicating that traders have not added leveraged positions. Funding rates are the recurring fees that perpetual futures longs and shorts pay one another, making them a direct read on demand for leveraged positioning.

The rally has nonetheless lifted altcoin holders out of deep losses: median supply in profit across altcoins has climbed from 3% in mid-August to 23%, the sharpest improvement in over a year, though the majority of holders remain underwater.

Glassnode concludes that the absence of new leverage limits the risk of a forced unwind, leaving the market's near-term direction hinging on whether buyers can absorb the overhead supply and whether institutional demand returns.

Source: Metaverse Post