Bitcoin (BTC) has roughly 45 days to prove that a new uptrend is firmly in place above $79,600, according to market cycle analyst Bob Loukas, in an assessment reported by COINOTAG on October 23, 2026. Counted from that date, the window runs to roughly early December 2026, which makes price behavior around the $79,600 threshold the checkpoint to watch in the weeks ahead.

Loukas is a longtime commentator in the cryptocurrency space, known for applying cycle-timing models to Bitcoin — most notably a four-year cycle framework that links the asset's major bull and bear phases to its halving schedule, under which the rate of new bitcoin issuance is cut roughly in half every four years; the halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and most recently April 2024. Within his current analysis, the coming 45 days serve as the window in which Bitcoin needs to establish and hold price action above the $79,600 level for a new uptrend to be validated. The framing reflects a broader convention in cycle-based technical analysis, in which a market is judged not only by where price trades but by how long it can hold a referenced level — a distinction traders use to separate short-lived moves from confirmed trend changes.

Update 05:57 UTC: A further note on the risk map around the 45-day window came on October 23 from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who argued that a collapse of the AI bubble would largely spare Bitcoin.

Ki Young Ju is the founder and chief executive of CryptoQuant, an on-chain market analytics platform that tracks data such as Bitcoin exchange flows, miner activity, and holder behavior. His remark speaks to a recurring macro debate over whether elevated valuations in artificial intelligence-related assets could unwind and spill over into other risk markets, including cryptocurrencies. The question has taken on added relevance for Bitcoin holders since US spot bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, placing the asset in the same portfolio conversations as AI-linked equities. In practice, the observable checkpoints from here are whether Bitcoin holds above $79,600 through the window and how the AI-valuation debate develops, with on-chain measures of exchange flows and holder behavior — the kind of data CryptoQuant publishes — available as independent reference points.

The article was first published on COINOTAG.