Bitcoin is testing a long-term trend line that has historically served as the launchpad for runs to new macro highs, according to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin (BTC) may continue toward new all-time highs if it successfully breaks through its 20-month moving average, currently at $87,165, CryptoQuant reported. The platform's market cycle signals metric shows BTC/USD positioned to reclaim this "inflection frontier," a level it lost in December 2025. CryptoQuant's bull-bear market cycle indicator continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bull market.

Analysis: Bitcoin "reset" complete as key trend line reappears

Data from CryptoQuant shows BTC/USD has begun a fresh battle with its 20-month simple moving average (SMA). Moving averages smooth price over a fixed number of periods, and their longest settings are typically used to track multi-year trends rather than day-to-day swings. The 20-month SMA — $87,165 as of Oct. 16 — is the trend line around which the popular Bollinger Bands metric is constructed, and it forms the basis for CryptoQuant's market cycle signals tool, which seeks to pinpoint Bitcoin's position within its market cycle.

Bollinger Bands use standard deviation to add an upper and lower band around the 20-month SMA, expanding and contracting as volatility shifts. Those bands currently sit at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. CryptoQuant's indicator describes the zone between the lower band and the SMA as an "accumulation base," while the SMA itself is referred to as an "inflection frontier" — a prior point of investor capitulation after price broke below it from above, most recently in December 2025.

With Bitcoin now preparing to challenge that capitulation zone from below, history shows that successful breakouts have led to new cycle highs.

"Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its 'reset,'" CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain summarized in a blog post.

While Bollinger Bands are not intended to offer buy and sell signals, market cycle signals sees "smart money" taking profit once BTC/USD reaches its upper band. That band currently sits just below Bitcoin's most recent all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025 though CryptoQuant expects the next rally to continue beyond that level.

"While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it's the 'top,' the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up," GugaOnChain added, referring to a current BTC price support zone.

The 20-month SMA has confluence with Bitcoin's 2026 opening level at $87,490, boosting its strength as resistance. As Cointelegraph reported, large walls of ask liquidity remain in the vicinity across exchange order books — the kind of clustered sell orders that can add friction to upward moves. That makes price behavior around the $87,165 line a key input for CryptoQuant's coming cycle readings.

Onchain data shows entrenching Bitcoin bull market

CryptoQuant maintains a broadly optimistic stance on Bitcoin's emerging bull market despite crypto and risk assets navigating macroeconomic headwinds.

This week, contributor XWIN Research Japan flagged data from three onchain metrics that they said gave reason for "cautious optimism" for bullish momentum to return through the end of October, as Cointelegraph reported. Such readings are drawn from activity on Bitcoin's public blockchain rather than exchange price feeds, offering a lens on the market that is separate from spot charts alone.

In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju officially stated that the bear market was "over" based on readings from the bull-bear market cycle indicator, which uses composite data from several onchain profitability metrics. The indicator shows bullish momentum accelerating, with a reading of 0.186 on its scale versus 0.042 in August.