Australian share market futures are pointing to another soft opening, with S&P/ASX 200 futures down 24 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 9128, even as US markets rallied overnight — a divergence that underscores how local equities are also shaped by commodity price movements, the Australian dollar, and regional trading dynamics rather than US sentiment alone.

Wall Street Rebounds on Milder US CPI

Overnight, Wall Street bounced back after two consecutive sessions in the red. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were buoyed by a milder-than-expected US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, with consumer prices rising 0.1 per cent for the month. Analysts expressed hope that the data eases pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The inflation print is the last major US price gauge before the Fed's next policy meeting, making it a closely watched input for rate-path expectations.

Tech stocks drew strong interest, with cloud-computing company CoreWeave surging 19.28 per cent after reporting a doubling of revenue in its quarterly results. CoreWeave, which specialises in GPU-backed cloud infrastructure for AI workloads, has been a beneficiary of surging demand for artificial intelligence computing capacity.

IEA Flags Global Oil Supply Shortfall

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that the global oil market is facing a 1.8 million barrel-per-day shortfall, with Middle East production remaining well below pre-war levels. The agency estimated that global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or approximately four per cent, this year. The assessment adds to a complex pricing backdrop in which OPEC+ has been managing output through voluntary cuts, while geopolitical risk premia remain elevated.

However, the latest IEA Monthly Oil Statistics report, covering May 2026 data, showed that total OECD production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and refinery feedstocks increased by 2.8 per cent compared to the same month last year. Refinery gross output of total products rose 0.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Net deliveries of total products decreased in May 2026 compared to May 2025, down 3.7 per cent year-on-year. Oil stock levels on national territory fell by 9,189 kt in May 2026 compared to the closing stock.

On the natural gas side, production increased by 1.4 per cent compared to May 2025. Imports of natural gas were 7.9 per cent lower year-on-year, while total OECD exports decreased by 0.8 per cent over the same period. Gross consumption of natural gas rose 1.2 per cent in May 2026 on a year-on-year basis.

Currency and Commodities

In forex, the Australian dollar is buying US$0.706.

Commodity markets showed the following movements:

• Iron Ore: up 1.26 per cent to $95.09 per tonne
• Brent Crude: down 0.73 per cent to $82.590 per barrel
• Gold: trading at $4,408.60 per ounce
• US Natural Gas Futures: up 0.86 per cent to $2.7909 per MMBtu

ASX Reporting: ANZ

Big four bank ANZ has announced an unaudited statutory profit of $1.95 billion for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, alongside a cash profit of $1.90 billion. The quarterly update offers an early signal on Australian banking sector health, with investors watching margins, loan growth, and credit quality across the major banks this reporting season.

CEO Nuno Matos said the bank remains on track to meet its return on tangible equity and cost-to-income targets.

"In the quarter, we continued to improve productivity, margins and business volumes, including accelerating growth in business banking and returning home lending to system growth," Matos said.

"We continue to watch the external environment closely across our network. Our balance sheet and capital position remain strong, and we are staying close to our customers should they need support."

Telstra FY26 Results and FY27 Guidance

Telstra is forecasting continued underlying EBITDA growth in FY27, with a guidance range of between $8.5 billion and $8.8 billion. The outlook provides the first earnings signpost for Australia's largest telecommunications company in the new fiscal year.

The company reported a strong FY26, delivering improved growth driven by increased investment in its network. Compared to the prior period, EBITDA rose three per cent to $8.2 billion, net profit after tax increased 2.7 per cent to $2.4 billion, and earnings per share climbed 5.3 per cent to 19.9 cents.

Monadelphous Wins $110 Million in New Contracts

Engineering firm Monadelphous Group has continued to build its order book, securing more than $110 million in new contracts. The awards span energy and resources clients, reinforcing the company's exposure to sustained capital and maintenance spending across Australia's mining and oil and gas sectors.

In Papua New Guinea, the company was awarded a contract by Santos associated with the APT tie-in project in the Southern Highlands oil and gas fields. The company's civil business, Melchor, has landed a contract with Pilbara Ports associated with the Utah project.

Additionally, Monadelphous has secured a 12-month contract for the provision of services at Glencore's Murrin Murrin operations in Western Australia.