BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes—the derivatives veteran who co-founded the exchange credited with popularizing perpetual futures—has acknowledged that Hyperliquid proved genuine demand exists for on-chain perpetual futures markets, but he cautioned that HYPE has become a consensus trade with a weakened risk-reward profile. In comments published on October 16, Hayes argued that the principal danger facing HYPE is not a sudden price collapse. Rather, he said, the token may trail other crypto assets—most notably ETH and ZEC—over the coming period. His remarks came in a post that praised the product while questioning the investment case, and they were shared by Wu Blockchain on October 23.

Arthur Hayes: HYPE Could Significantly Underperform ETH and ZEC

On October 16, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes stated that Hyperliquid has demonstrated genuine demand for on-chain perpetual futures markets. However, as the sector has become a consensus trade, HYPE's… pic.twitter.com/HwmsjbR5QT

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 23, 2026

A Strong Product, a Crowded Trade

Hayes made clear that his caution concerns capital allocation rather than the platform's functionality. He acknowledged that Hyperliquid built a product traders actually use: trading volume is present, and the platform works as intended. He added that he is willing to use its products as a consumer, even though he does not want to participate as an investor. In market parlance, a consensus trade describes a position that has attracted broad investor agreement, where the pool of incremental buyers tends to thin once a theme becomes widely adopted—precisely the status Hayes says HYPE has reached.

A great product does not always translate into a strong investment, according to Hayes. Perpetual decentralized exchanges—platforms that let traders take leveraged positions on asset prices without holding the underlying assets—now face rising competition as their offerings become increasingly similar. Centralized exchanges, traditional exchanges, and a growing list of decentralized rivals all provide comparable products, and in that setting features and fees are easy to match.

When rivals can match features and fees, returns on capital tend to shrink. As a result, success depends on execution, distribution, incentives, and token economics. Hayes described this as a difficult setup for investors to underwrite, since each of those factors can shift quickly as new platforms launch. That dynamic is why the perp-DEX race matters beyond a single token: it is a live test of whether on-chain trading venues can sustain durable economics once their core product becomes a commodity.

He also pointed to HYPE's reputation as a widely recognized perp-DEX success story. Because the trade is crowded, he believes the token offers less room to re-rate. The question, in his view, is whether HYPE delivers the best risk-adjusted return from here.

Why ETH and ZEC May Offer Better Setups

Hayes argued that HYPE could underperform without falling in price. Holders may lose ground simply because other assets rise faster. Relative performance, therefore, matters more than absolute price in his view, and that is the core risk he identified rather than a direct loss of capital.

ETH, the native asset of Ethereum—the smart-contract network that hosts a large share of decentralized finance—in his assessment has the scale, security, and institutional DeFi narrative to attract capital. If the market rotates back toward large-cap crypto, it could benefit. Hayes sees that setup as stronger than HYPE's current position and treats ETH as a more established option for investors seeking exposure.

ZEC, the token of the privacy-focused Zcash network—a project launched in 2016 that uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable shielded transactions—offers a different kind of bet. It is a higher-risk way to express demand for privacy and scarce assets. Hayes noted that both ETH and ZEC could surprise investors if liquidity expands, adding that being early to a crowded winner may appeal less when capital chases upside.

The comments mark a notable turn in Hayes's public stance. He previously set a $150 price target for HYPE, and days later announced that he had sold all of his HYPE and NEAR holdings, the latter being the token of the layer-1 blockchain NEAR Protocol. For readers tracking the call, the yardstick is the one Hayes himself set: whether HYPE matches or trails ETH and ZEC in relative terms over the period ahead, rather than whether it rises or falls in isolation.