Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, said the Bitcoin bull market is already underway, arguing that an expansion of longer-dated U.S. Treasury buybacks is effectively increasing dollar liquidity and should benefit Bitcoin first.

Hayes made the assessment in his latest essay, Same Same But Different, according to information shared by @WuBlockchain on X. His argument centers on the relationship between U.S. Treasury operations, liquidity conditions and Bitcoin’s performance, rather than on any specific Bitcoin price target.

The comments add to Hayes’ broader focus on macroeconomic developments as a factor influencing cryptocurrency markets. His latest analysis places Treasury debt-management policy at the center of the discussion, suggesting that changes in the way the U.S. government manages outstanding debt could affect liquidity across financial markets.

Hayes Connects Treasury Buybacks With Dollar Liquidity

The core of Hayes’ argument is the expansion of longer-dated Treasury buybacks under U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In market terminology, “longer-dated” refers to Treasury securities with longer maturities, distinguishing them from shorter-dated instruments such as Treasury bills.

Treasury buybacks involve the government purchasing previously issued Treasury securities from investors. These transactions are part of the Treasury’s broader debt-management activities and can affect how securities are distributed and traded within financial markets.

Hayes argues that the expansion of these buybacks is effectively creating additional dollar liquidity. His interpretation focuses on capital movement within the financial system and the potential impact that greater liquidity can have on asset markets.

For Bitcoin, Hayes sees this development as especially important. He argues that the cryptocurrency should be among the first assets to benefit from the increase in liquidity generated by the Treasury operations.

The original information does not provide a specific figure for the amount of additional liquidity Hayes attributes to the buybacks. It also does not include a Bitcoin price forecast or a specific target for the cryptocurrency.

Why Liquidity Matters to Bitcoin Markets

Liquidity is closely watched across financial markets because it can influence the availability of capital for investment and trading. When analysts refer to “dollar liquidity,” they mean the ease with which dollar-denominated funds are available for lending, borrowing and trading across the financial system. Changes in liquidity conditions can affect demand for a wide range of assets, including traditional securities and cryptocurrencies.

Hayes’ analysis uses that relationship as the basis for his Bitcoin outlook. Rather than treating liquidity as a secondary factor, he presents it as a key component of the current market environment.

Bitcoin has increasingly been analyzed within a broader macroeconomic framework as institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market has expanded. Investors and market observers often monitor monetary conditions, government debt markets and other financial indicators when assessing the environment for digital assets.

In Same Same But Different, Hayes applies that framework to Treasury buybacks and their potential liquidity effects. His conclusion is that the resulting conditions should favor Bitcoin before other assets.

Scott Bessent’s Treasury Policy in Focus

Scott Bessent’s role is central to the argument because the Treasury secretary oversees the department responsible for managing the U.S. government’s debt.

Hayes specifically points to the expansion of longer-dated Treasury buybacks as the mechanism through which additional dollar liquidity is being created.

In Hayes’ view, the significance of the policy extends beyond Treasury markets themselves. He argues that the effects of the transactions can influence broader financial conditions by changing how capital moves through the financial system.

The available information, however, does not provide further details about the size of the buyback expansion or quantify its precise impact on overall dollar liquidity.

That distinction is important because Hayes’ comments represent an interpretation of the market effects of the Treasury’s policy. The original post does not establish a measured amount of additional liquidity or demonstrate a direct causal relationship between the buybacks and Bitcoin’s market performance.

Hayes Says Bitcoin Bull Market Has Started

Despite the lack of a specific price projection, Hayes’ conclusion is direct: he believes the Bitcoin bull market is already underway.

His assessment is based on the liquidity argument outlined in his latest essay. If Treasury buybacks are effectively increasing the availability of dollars, Hayes expects Bitcoin to be among the first assets to benefit from those conditions.

Hayes has previously built much of his cryptocurrency market analysis around macroeconomic and liquidity trends. His latest essay continues that approach by connecting U.S. Treasury debt-management decisions with the outlook for Bitcoin.

The argument also highlights how cryptocurrency market analysis increasingly overlaps with developments in traditional financial markets. Treasury policy, government debt operations and liquidity conditions can all become relevant to investors assessing digital assets.

For Bitcoin market participants, Hayes’ latest comments place attention on developments outside the cryptocurrency sector itself. The analysis suggests that understanding Treasury policy and broader liquidity conditions is an important part of the market framework he uses to evaluate Bitcoin — which, in practical terms, means the developments most relevant to his thesis are the Treasury’s buyback operations and wider debt-management decisions rather than cryptocurrency-specific news.

According to the information shared by @WuBlockchain, Hayes’ central thesis remains that the expansion of longer-dated Treasury buybacks is creating more dollar liquidity and that Bitcoin should benefit first. On that basis, he maintains that the cryptocurrency’s bull market is already in progress.