Anthropic's planned initial public offering could raise up to $3.5 billion from Japanese investors, according to a Nov. 2 filing, while traders on the prediction-market platform Polymarket assign an 82 percent probability to a November stock-market debut. The proposed Japanese allocation forms part of the artificial intelligence developer's planned U.S. listing, though the company has not confirmed its offering price, valuation, or trading date. Some investors have also discussed a potential market valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion.

Anthropic IPO Seeks $3.5 Billion From Japanese Investors

According to Reuters, the Japanese allocation will comprise up to 552.9 billion yen in newly issued shares. The proceeds are earmarked for working capital, operating expenses, and capital investment, all of which will be used by Anthropic.

The sale is not a listing on the Tokyo stock market. Instead, it forms part of a wider international offering tied to the company's planned U.S. listing, with access also expected for investors in Australia, Canada, Britain, and certain parts of Europe.

Mizuho Securities will manage the Japanese portion of the deal, while other banks will help take investor orders, Bloomberg reported. Anthropic has not announced the overall size of the IPO or its final valuation, nor has it stated how much it intends to raise globally.

Japanese investors have recently gained access to comparable offerings. Japan also participated in SpaceX's IPO in June, when the local investor community accounted for $2.2 billion of the $75 billion raised. At the upper end of the range, Anthropic's Japanese tranche would exceed that figure.

Nasdaq Filing Reveals Revenue Growth and Heavy Losses

Anthropic filed for registration in the United States on Oct. 26 and intends to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ANT. The prospectus remains preliminary, and no offering price, number of shares, or first trading date has been confirmed. In a typical IPO, those terms are finalized in subsequent prospectus filings before the first day of trading.

The company's first-half revenue stood at $16.3 billion, up from approximately $1.2 billion a year earlier, a more than thirteenfold increase. Despite that growth, Anthropic posted an $80.7 billion net loss, driven primarily by financing-related accounting adjustments. Noncash adjustments accounted for roughly $72.4 billion of that total, while the operating loss came to $693 million.

The reported figures reflect the net loss as filed but exclude the day-to-day costs of running the business. The registration follows earlier reports of Anthropic's rapid revenue expansion and its computing expenses. Building and operating AI systems requires continuous investment, and the Japanese share sale would provide the company with a means of funding that effort.

Polymarket Gives November Anthropic IPO Odds of 82%

Contracts on the prediction-market platform imply an 82 percent likelihood that Anthropic will list in November 2026. Those odds are derived from contract pricing rather than an official IPO timeline. On platforms such as Polymarket, traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes, and the resulting prices function as implied probabilities that shift with each trade.

Traders are also weighing Anthropic against SpaceX in a separate bet over which company will stage the biggest IPO by market capitalization in 2026. Current contract pricing puts SpaceX at about 57 percent and Anthropic at 43 percent, although prices shift with trading.

Anthropic is also ahead of its rival OpenAI on the IPO timeline. A recent Polymarket contract assigns a 96 percent chance that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, meaning no OpenAI IPO would occur until 2027 or later.

Valuation Talk and AI Spending Concerns

Some Anthropic investors have discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, Reuters reported, but the company has not finalized its offering price. For scale, only a small group of publicly traded companies has ever reached that valuation level. Meanwhile, both Nvidia and Anthropic have drawn concerns regarding AI spending and growth.

On Sunday, CNBC commentator Jim Cramer argued that bearish traders are seeking to disrupt the planned offering. “I think that the goal of the bears out there is to derail the Anthropic IPO,” he wrote on X.