Several Alabama Republican candidates are voicing concern over signs of waning party enthusiasm ahead of the fall campaign, fearing that soft voter turnout could hand Democrats an unexpected boost in November.

The warning signs surfaced across the state's primary elections Statewide turnout for the May primary stood at 23%, but the number of people taking Democratic ballots jumped compared with four years earlier, while turnout in Republican-heavy areas stayed flat. In the August 13 special congressional primaries held in four districts—most of which featured contested Republican races—turnout was just 5%.

“Republicans control the state. Most of the people in this state are Republican, they vote Republican reliably,” said State Auditor Andrew Sorrell, a Republican seeking re-election, in an interview Thursday. “If we ever perform poorly in an election, it is not because people woke up and decided they were Democrats today. Anytime we lose, it is when our people stay home and don't go vote.”

Multiple messages were sent to Scott Stadthagen, chair of the Alabama Republican Party, seeking comment.

Republicans have fully controlled Alabama state government since 2012. Democrats have been a superminority in the Alabama Legislature since 2010 and have not won a governor's race since 1998.

Still, the party faces significant headwinds entering the midterm election cycle, driven by concerns over inflation and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. Historically, the party holding the White House has lost U.S. House seats in nearly every midterm election since World War II. Earlier this year, GOP legislators redrew the 2nd Congressional District—currently represented by U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile—to favor a Republican.

Yet Sabato's Crystal Ball, the congressional race forecaster published by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, recently shifted its rating of the contest from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican”—a move toward the competitive end of its scale—citing in part expectations of strong turnout among Black voters, who tend to vote Democratic. Black turnout is expected to climb across the South after Republican efforts this spring to draw Figures and other Black members of Congress out of their seats through redistricting.

“Maybe if it is higher Black enthusiasm, maybe if turnout is lower in, let's say, the Wiregrass part of the state, you could see Rep. Figures getting a large turnout in Montgomery, whereas keeping the rural areas a little closer because they might have lower turnout, him holding his seat in that way,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor at The Center for Politics. The Wiregrass is a largely rural, heavily Republican region in the state's southeastern corner.

Rep. Rhett Marques, R-Enterprise, the Republican nominee for the 2nd Congressional District, has been vocal about his concerns over low turnout during the primary election. During a campaign event, he said that “voting is going to matter, not only for this state but for the direction of our country.”

Tabitha Isner, former vice chair of the Alabama Democratic Party, said she was encouraged by the vote totals during the primary election season earlier this year.

“Big picture, I think we are seeing higher than normal levels of Democratic engagement and we are seeing lower than normal levels of Republican engagement,” she said in an interview Monday.

Others noted that turnout concerns transcend party lines.

“There is not an elected official or candidate in the United States of America who is not concerned about voter turnout,” Rep. Chris Pringle, R-Mobile, said in an interview Tuesday. “We are candidates, we need people to come out and vote.”

Midterm Lag

Midterm turnout typically lags presidential-year participation. In 2024, voter turnout in Alabama was almost 59%—a 30-year low for the state. In the 2022 midterms, it was only about 38%, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, which tracks voter turnout numbers.

However, the particular political environment of the current cycle compounds the Republican Party's problems.

“With the emergence of Trump, Trump was able to win the popular vote in 2024, and he was able to do that because he realigned the Republican Party, bringing in these voters who had never participated before, bringing in a lot of rural Americans, a lot of, what we could call in political science, 'low propensity voters,'” said Spencer Goidel, assistant professor of political science at Auburn University.

Trump, whose presence on a ballot can rally his voters to the polls, is not running this year—a dynamic that could prove problematic for Republican candidates. The president implored supporters to vote in the coming election at a recent midterm convention in Texas.

“You know what happens if you don't vote? You go to hell,” he said at the convention. “Go out and vote, go out and vote!”

Other Republicans have voiced alarm over possible GOP apathy even as Democrats appear energized.

“The Democratic base is excited,” said John Wahl, former chair of the Alabama Republican Party and the party's nominee for lieutenant governor. “They are not happy with what is going on in Washington. They don't like Donald Trump, and they are engaged in this election process, they are going to turn out to vote. And I think Republicans have to give our base that same excitement in order to get out and vote.”

The primary numbers underscore the trend. In the May primary, the share of Democratic primary ballots reached 43%, up from 22% four years earlier. Democrats also posted significant jumps in primary votes cast in Madison, Mobile and Tuscaloosa counties, all critical to the party's prospects.

“If the same thing happens in the general election where Democrats are seeing the same level of increase, we ought to be winning some statewide seats,” Isner said. “I think that is making a lot of Democrats feel really excited and hopeful and making a lot of Republicans very nervous.”

According to data on the Alabama Secretary of State's website, almost 170,000 people voted to nominate the Democratic nominee for governor in 2022. Earlier this year, the same contest drew more than 365,000 votes—an increase of roughly 117%.

“I think Democrats are really motivated by what we have seen in terms of attacks on the Voting Rights Act, attacks on basic liberties, the way in which standards and norms for governance have been broken,” Isner said. “The people feel disrespected by those things.”

Will It Matter?

It remains unclear whether turnout in the coming general election will stay as low as it was in the primaries. And even if it does, the benefit to Democratic congressional candidates is far from certain. Alabama Republicans have long benefited from straight-ticket voting—the practice of choosing every candidate from one party with a single selection: in 2024, about two-thirds of all ballots cast were straight-ticket, and of those, roughly two-thirds were cast for the Republican Party.

“It feels like a real long shot to me,” said Mitchell Brown, a professor of political science at Auburn University. “If you look at the margins in the last midterm, they were pretty. The closest race was 67% Republican and 29% Democrat. I would be really surprised if, all of a sudden, the Democratic turnout was so high and Republican turnout was so low that a Democrat could ever overcome these margins.”

Brown added that the margin in the governor's race likewise favors Republicans.

“It will matter in some places, local level races, or where the numbers are really small because that is where funny things happen,” Brown said.

Low turnout, she said, will matter most in places where the electorate features a mix of registered Republicans and Democrats and where the eligible voting population is smaller.

Democrats are pushing in Madison County, where demographics have shifted in their favor in recent years, though Republicans continue to dominate elected offices.

“There are swing legislative districts in Madison County, for instance, that I think could be in trouble,” Sorrell said. “I also have some opinions on a couple of statewide races that look like they will be closer than they should be, but I don't want to give you names there.”

Wahl said the 2nd Congressional District would likely be “the biggest battleground in the state of Alabama.”

“This is a must-win district for the Republican Party,” he said.

Sorrell said Republicans must keep their voters enthusiastic whether Trump is on the ballot or not.

“That is on us as candidates,” he said. “If voter turnout is poor, that is on the candidates. It is nobody's job but the candidates to motivate people to go vote.”