The far-right Alternative for Germany was projected to win a strong victory in Sunday's regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, but it remained unclear whether the party could fulfill its ambition of forming Germany's first far-right state government since World War II.

The result was set to be disastrous for the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Germany's unpopular leader, in the eastern state. The AfD, which campaigns against migration and is friendly toward Russia, saw its candidate for governor declare that "we have written history."

Ulrich Siegmund, 35, told public broadcaster ARD that voters had sent a signal that "things cannot carry on like this" and that it was "also a signal toward Berlin." Asked about the chancellor, he said: "A very good campaigner for us in this election campaign was Friedrich Merz. Every day this man is in the chancellery is one too many."

The AfD went into the vote seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature that would allow it to govern alone. That would break through the so-called firewall — the refusal of mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD — but long after polls closed, it remained uncertain whether the party had achieved it.

Securing its first state government would be the biggest prize in the anti-migration party's 13-year history, coming at a time of widespread discontent with a national government that has yet to convince voters it can revive the country's sluggish economy.

Whether or not the AfD manages to form a government, the projected result is a blow to Merz, whose center-right party has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years. It also puts renewed strain on the firewall itself: earlier in 2025, Merz sparked fierce criticism, including from within his own conservative camp, after relying on AfD votes to pass a nonbinding migration motion in the national parliament, before ruling out cooperation for the subsequent vote. Unlike other European countries, where parties such as Italy's Brothers of Italy and the Netherlands' Party for Freedom have entered government, modern Germany has never had a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national, state, or major-city government.

The AfD is the largest opposition party in Germany's national parliament and draws its strongest support from the formerly communist, less prosperous east, where Saxony-Anhalt is located.

The party's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is one of several classified by Germany's domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group, citing among other things members' denigration of migrants from Muslim countries. In May 2025, the domestic intelligence service took the further step of classifying the AfD's national organization as a confirmed right-wing extremist entity, a designation the party is challenging in court.

The party speaks of "remigration," a politically charged term for the deportation of immigrants. Its leader in a neighboring state, Björn Höcke, has appealed two convictions for knowingly using a Nazi slogan. The AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism, describing them as politically motivated.

Projections by ARD and ZDF public television, based on exit polls and partial counting, put the AfD at a bit over 44% of the vote — more than double its showing five years ago in the region of 2.1 million people west of Berlin.

That placed it far ahead of Merz's Christian Democratic Union, which was polling at 18% and losing roughly half its support. The Left Party, the center-left Social Democrats, and the Greens were each seen taking around 9%.

It was unclear whether the BSW party would reach the 5% threshold required to win seats. The projections put the AfD at least marginally short of an absolute majority, though that could change as counting continues.

AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel described the projected result as "sensational," adding: "we have received a very clear mandate to govern here." The party's "hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward," she said.

A visibly disappointed incumbent governor, Sven Schulze, congratulated the AfD on becoming the state's strongest political force and said that "we as the CDU will also have to deal with this result," without specifying how.

Franziska Hoppermann, national general-secretary of Merz's party, rejected any suggestion of abandoning the party's refusal to deal with the AfD.

"AfD is a right-wing extremist party. It wants to leave the euro; that would be economic downfall … it works closely together with Russia, it wants a completely different social model," she said. "We will not work with them."

There is precedent for an AfD state election victory that did not translate into power. Two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, a CDU governor took office leading a minority government, though in that case the regional AfD fell well short of a majority.

If the result allows Schulze to attempt some kind of alliance with smaller parties, the arithmetic would be delicate: it would require at least tacit support from the Left Party, a hard-left party with which the CDU refuses to form coalitions.

Germany's 16 states hold extensive powers, including oversight of security matters and responsibility for the education system.

Siegmund has listed among his top priorities "a deportation offensive" and ending incentives for people to come to Germany and "exploit our social system." He also wants to initiate a lengthy process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about "disinformation."

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt wants to permit home schooling, which is currently not allowed in Germany. It pledges to ban schools from officially raising the rainbow flag and to ensure they fly the national flag. The party opposes taxpayers' money being "given away" to Ukraine and says it would push to lift sanctions against Russia — though that is not a matter state governments can decide.

State governments also sit in Germany's upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, which must approve some federal legislation. The influence of Saxony-Anhalt, one of the smaller states in a nation of 83.5 million people, is limited: it controls four of the 69 votes.

The vote is also being watched as a test of the AfD's standing ahead of Germany's next national election scheduled for 2029, with the party currently polling strongly nationwide after finishing second in the February 2025 federal election.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.