USD/JPY 在過去一週大多維持在 158.50 至 159.50 之間，主要圍繞 159.00 水準波動。即使美元本週初走勢偏軟，該貨幣對今天也呈現相似格局。雖然美元顯露一些疲弱跡象，但日圓仍持續承壓，而更廣泛的基本面背景大致未變。

目前最主要的不同在於，干預風險看起來更加明顯。這使得 USD/JPY 的價格走勢保持緊繃，尤其是若匯價進一步逼近 160，可能提高再次出現聯合干預的機率。160 附近歷來是東京方面的重要觸發區：日本當局在 2024 年曾多次於匯價接近該水準時出手，儘管在更早的幾次事件中，市場通常在初步衝擊過後便迅速淡化官方行動。即便如此，在其他條件不變下，阻力最小的路徑看來仍偏向日圓走弱。

在這樣的背景下，分析師對日本貨幣後續走勢仍然看法分歧。

BofA 先前曾認為，USD/JPY 有不錯機會在年底回落至 149， 如這裡所述。不過，該行目前表示，風險平衡正開始轉向不利於這一觀點：

"More than a week has passed since the joint US-Japan FX Intervention. So far, the operation appears relatively successful as, compared with previous episodes, investors have been reluctant to fade the rally. Indeed, the authorities' strong commitment and the high cost of failure have strengthened our bullish conviction on the JPY, and we recently revised our year-end USD/JPY forecast to 149 from 152.

However, our quant signals raise some red flags for near-term JPY strength. Last week we saw an aggressive mean reversion in JPY skew, and option flow moved strongly in favor of JPY puts vs EUR and AUD, indicating that investors are moderating their worries on further upside. Additionally, our technical matrix has yet to trigger any positioning trend signals, while up/down vol and residual skew indicate that positioning and short-term sentiment are not yet supportive of the uptrend. Finally, our time-zone analysis indicates that JPY buying was not broad-based last week, with USD/JPY finding consistent support during US trading hours"

另一方面，高盛認為，如果條件合適，日圓空頭可能進一步回補。相關影響不僅限於貨幣本身。由於日本利率長期遠低於美國與歐洲，日圓一直是全球套利交易的重要融資貨幣，而日圓快速升值可能迫使這些槓桿部位迅速平倉——2024 年 7 月至 8 月的那段走勢，也伴隨全球市場波動顯著升溫：

"Japan's largest FX intervention in 15 years forced a sharp reduction in tactical JPY carry positions- even bigger than the initial unwind after the July 2024 operations. But the less JPY-positive macro backdrop likely in part explains why USD/JPY has already reversed nearly half of its initial decline.

Despite the significant drop in speculative positioning, more unwinds can follow if the right conditions align. Positioning could even flip net long if the macro and market backdrop argues for a stronger JPY, as it did in July-August 2024. Recession risk is much lower today than in the summer of 2024, and a bullish shift in JPY sentiment often requires the emergence of growth concerns.

But markets now view a September Bank of Japan hike as roughly 75% likely, and a faster pace of hikes could keep the JPY stronger for longer without a shift in the global growth backdrop."

不過，這最後一點值得注意，儘管它未必像表面看起來那樣足以成為支撐日圓的強有力理由。 如先前討論，除非日本央行採取更激進的做法，否則升息未必足以實質改變更廣泛的日圓前景。原因之一很簡單：即使收緊步伐加快，日本政策利率仍會遠低於美國對應水準，讓拖累日圓的利差大致維持不變。

摩根大通也不認為日本央行升息會對日圓構成重大轉折：

"Rate hike expectations have increased not only at the front-end but also further out the curve. However, this has not translated into yen appreciation; instead, the relationship between BOJ hike expectations and JPY has become a negative correlation.

Our Japan economists have revised their forecast to reflect a somewhat faster tightening pace by the BOJ, expecting the policy rate to reach 2% by end-2027. However: (1) a move to 2% is already largely priced in, and (2) the negative correlation between BOJ hike expectations and JPY is likely to persist for the time being.

Therefore, we think that a faster BOJ hiking path will only have a limited impact on our medium-to-long-term yen-weakness view. We keep our year-end USD/JPY target unchanged at 164."