Thomas Kaplan 稱黃金可能達到 50,000 美元
重點速覽
- •Thomas Kaplan 表示，黃金最終可能達到每盎司 30,000 至 50,000 美元，並認為從當前水準上漲十倍屬於可能且合理的情況。
- •Kaplan 未提供上漲時間表，並表示他不確定黃金近期回調是否已經見底。
- •他認為黃金與白銀正處於一個非常長期的波段，未來兩者都將創下更多高點。
- •Kaplan 表示，他在 2007 年出售家族能源公司後買入黃金與白銀，以保護資產。
Thomas Kaplan 稱黃金可能達到 50,000 美元
Mike Maharrey
億萬富豪投資人 Thomas Kaplan 做出了一個驚人的黃金價格預測，稱金價最終可能達到 50,000 美元。
在接受 Kitco News 訪問時，Kaplan 表示，" Seeing gold go up another tenfold from here, to me, is not just likely, but inevitable. "
"I can see gold going to 30, 40, 50,000 dollars without a problem."
"I can see gold going to 30, 40, 50,000 dollars without a problem."
Kaplan 擔任 The Electrum Group 的董事長與 CIO，這是一家專注於自然資源的顧問及資產管理公司。該公司管理資產約 2.5 billion 美元。
Kaplan 也是 Rembrandt 藝術作品最大的私人收藏者。
雖然 Kaplan 提出了大膽的價格預測，但他並未為這輪上漲設定時間表。不過，他表示，當前處於“ what will be seen to be a very, very long wave in gold and silver, that we will see more highs in both. ”
Kaplan 不願對短期走勢作出推測，稱近期回調是否已經見底尚不明朗。
“Maybe it already is, maybe it needs to test again, I don't know.”
“Maybe it already is, maybe it needs to test again, I don't know.”
但他堅持認為這並不重要。
“Because in the long term, even in the medium term, gold and silver are going to multiply from where they are."
“Because in the long term, even in the medium term, gold and silver are going to multiply from where they are."
Kaplan 強調，他的策略是長期持有。
“People try to be too clever. And one of the reasons why I do hold things for so long is because, I just say to myself, I’m going to be patient. So long as they are still the best assets in their class, I’ll hold it forever, and I will not be distracted by noise.”
“People try to be too clever. And one of the reasons why I do hold things for so long is because, I just say to myself, I’m going to be patient. So long as they are still the best assets in their class, I’ll hold it forever, and I will not be distracted by noise.”
Kaplan 在 2007 年出售家族能源公司後轉向黃金與白銀。當時，黃金價格約在每盎司 $550 至 $600 之間。
“My view was that the place to protect my wealth, my family’s wealth, when we sold our energy company, which was our biggest asset and our biggest ‘killing,’ as it were, was gold and silver.”
“My view was that the place to protect my wealth, my family’s wealth, when we sold our energy company, which was our biggest asset and our biggest ‘killing,’ as it were, was gold and silver.”
為什麼是黃金和白銀？
"I'd entered 2007 with a view that things were just simply too good, not dissimilar to the way things are right now in certain respects. And that there was just too much bullishness in asset classes."
"I'd entered 2007 with a view that things were just simply too good, not dissimilar to the way things are right now in certain respects. And that there was just too much bullishness in asset classes."
當時，Kaplan 預測黃金將從 $500 區間上升至 $3,000 到 $5,000 之間。他表示，他認為金價會先到 $5,000，之後可能回落至 $3,000，然後再回升至 $5,000 並繼續上漲。
Kaplan 將近期回調比作一個“1987 moment”，也就是股市崩跌後又回升至新高的情況。這本質上是牛市中的一次修正。
他指出，Black Friday 時 36 percent 的暴跌“ really did seem like the world was falling in upon itself. ”
“And yet when you look back over that chart, you can't see it. Certainly, a person of my vintage would need glasses to be able to perceive it. It's that minute."
“And yet when you look back over that chart, you can't see it. Certainly, a person of my vintage would need glasses to be able to perceive it. It's that minute."
值得注意的是，這位在 2008 年崩盤前幾乎已退出市場、轉向黃金與白銀的人，認為當前環境也呈現相似特徵。
