MAGA民调专家警告称，愤怒的特朗普选民想要“原来的特朗普回归”——否则
要点速览
- •Rich Baris表示，特朗普当前版本在其大部分基本盘中表现不佳，许多选民希望恢复其第一任期的国内政策重点。
- •Baris将密歇根州和乔治亚州描述为民主党在即将到来的参议院选举中的有效稳胜州，并警告所谓安全选区也存在令人担忧的前景。
- •民主党要翻转参议院，需要净增4个席位，或净增3席再加上控制众议院。
- •Baris指出，2025年6月美国对伊朗核设施的打击“午夜铁锤行动”疏远了特朗普联盟中一大批偏孤立主义的支持者。
- •Baris警告说，共和党若不在特朗普2024年打下的基础上继续推进，联盟可能会迅速耗尽。
MAGA民调专家Rich Baris采访了无数特朗普选民，以评估共和党在11月的胜算。但他说，共和党的主要障碍在于，2024年的特朗普版本在总统的大部分基本盘中表现不佳。
Baris在周三与前乔治·布什演讲稿撰写人、Bulwark播客主持人Tim Miller的对话中表示：“[I]f we're having an honest discussion, you could be a supporter of the president and you can still be honest. I don't just see what sycophants see: how that helps anybody. I mean, ultimately, it's my job to convey what people are telling me. And they wanted the old Trump back.”
经营民调公司Big Data Poll、且以调查特朗普基本盘而非精英意见著称的Baris说，密歇根州和乔治亚州在即将到来的参议院选战中实际上对民主党而言已是稳拿，并警告说，随着Trump 2.0与其第一任期的特朗普明显分道扬镳，许多“安全”选区的前景也令人不安。与此同时，民主党要在11月中期选举中翻转参议院，需要净增4个席位——或者净增3席再加上控制众议院。
“People felt like, you know what? I think we might have had it a little bit better than we thought. Can we go back and have a redo? But this administration has not been a redo of 1.0 in many ways,” Baris告诉Miller。
他说，他的公司会每月发布一份对受访者回答的总结，而且在各项调查中反复出现一个稳定主题。
“And you could see it if you don't read the transcripts, the interviews, you could see in the word clouds, clear as day. They thought that the first Trump administration was much more focused on domestic policy. And Americans, they're not stupid. They know that the president's job has a lot [on its plate] but it's in the name right there: America First,” Baris said. “Look, I mean, I feel like I have a hard time speaking to some people on the right who are being intellectually dishonest with themselves. I mean, it's in the name, guys.”
Baris说，特朗普曾以“中东没有新的战争”为口号参选，而他的选民显然打算就这一承诺追究他的责任。他补充说，MAGA支持者，尤其是年轻人，非常喜欢特朗普第二任期头三到五个月的施政，但从政治时间尺度来看，那已经是很久以前的事了。
“Republicans are going to run out of a coalition soon if they don't build on what he started to build in 24. And a lot of those gains are squandered because of the direction they took,” Baris said.
他表示，共和党人“决定在春季，当然最晚在夏季、在Charlie [Kirk]被杀之前，就去执行Operation Midnight Hammer”，并称这对特朗普联盟中很大一部分人来说“有点像PTSD时刻”。Operation Midnight Hammer是五角大楼对美国2025年6月打击伊朗核设施行动的代号，这一干预引发了孤立主义右翼部分人士的反对。
“They just thought, ‘here we go again. No, please.’ And they gave him a lot of grace and they waited and waited and waited, but he never took that pivot back to the domestic,” Baris added.
