今日市场最重要的事件稍后来自杰克逊霍尔，所有目光都将集中在美联储主席 Warsh 的主旨演讲上。由堪萨斯城联储在怀俄明州主办的年度研讨会，历史上也曾充当政策平台：Bernanke 曾在 2010 年的讲话中为第二轮量化宽松奠定基础，Powell 则在 2020 年于此公布了灵活平均通胀目标框架。正因如此，即便预计这次讲话不会给出太多指引，市场仍然如此关注。

随着投资者寻求更清晰的信号，了解美联储打算如何应对通胀压力，尤其是在这种趋势继续发展的情况下，Warsh 将受到严格审视。上个月，他表示希望让市场主导，但美国财政部的干预使局势明显更加复杂。

在长期债券承压的背景下，Warsh 将面临外界对美联储如何看待这一局面的高度关注。如果他不对此作出回应，市场还会关注美联储将如何回应财政部的干预，以及该行动是否会影响央行的政策路径和/或货币政策传导。长端问题不仅关系到债券交易台：较长期美国国债收益率会传导至按揭利率和企业借贷成本，因此，任何会让美联储政策向实体经济传导路径变得模糊的因素，已不仅仅是技术性问题。

来自本周早些时候：Warsh 会保持低调、暂时让 Bessent 接手吗？

不过，高盛认为，Warsh 稍后发表的讲话不会带来太多可供提取的信息。该机构指出：

"We expect Warsh to reiterate his commitment to the 2% inflation target, expand on the rationale behind his approach to Fed communication, and offer thoughts on some bigger picture topics such as productivity growth or shocks to the global economy that he alluded to at his last press conference. He is likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide policy guidance. The theme of this year's symposium is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." The papers are likely to discuss topics such as stablecoins and should have little immediate relevance to monetary policy decisions."

并非只有高盛持这一看法。德意志也认为，Warsh 不太可能提供我们尚未知晓的内容：

"Warsh's Jackson Hole speech provides a timely opportunity for the Fed's new leader to clarify his vision for the central bank, either through a "big picture" talk focused on the task forces or through a policy-relevant discourse that cleans up some missteps in recent communications and presents scenarios for the outlook. Given his overall inclination to provide limited information about the policy outlook, we think his comments will most likely skew to the former, though we will be attentive to any additional signals on the latter."

鉴于两家机构都预计其政策指引有限，这场讲话的实际观察清单就缩小为几个要点：是否会提及美国国债收益率曲线长端、Warsh 会如何坚定锚定 2% 通胀目标，以及他如何界定财政部在债券市场中的角色。在这样一个历任主席曾用来释放框架层面转向信号的场合，即便是一场预计保持高层次的讲话，也会被逐句解读。