Ripple's business continues to grow as banks adopt its technology and spot XRP ETFs attract nearly $1.5 billion in inflows, yet XRP's price remains roughly 72% below its 2025 peak. On-chain data and technical chart patterns suggest the token may remain in a sideways range until 2028, an outlook echoed by multiple analysts citing historical cycle data.

Ripple Expands, But XRP Doesn't Follow

Ripple has spent the year strengthening its ecosystem. This week, the company launched the Ripple Mint platform for its RLUSD stablecoin, expanded across multiple blockchain networks, and continued attracting banks to the XRP Ledger for cross-border payments. This positions Ripple within a broader push by financial institutions to modernize cross-border settlement, where legacy correspondent-banking networks typically take days and involve multiple intermediaries.

However, stronger business growth has not translated into higher XRP prices. One reason lies in how the network operates: banks use the XRP Ledger to settle transactions almost instantly, meaning they do not need to hold large amounts of XRP for extended periods. At the same time, Ripple releases millions of XRP from escrow each month, increasing available supply.

Spot XRP ETFs have attracted approximately $1.49 billion in total inflows, but ETF holdings account for only 1% to 2% of XRP's circulating supply, limiting their price impact. The ETF launches were enabled in part by a July 2023 federal court ruling that programmatic XRP sales on public exchanges did not constitute securities offerings — a decision that distinguished XRP from many other digital assets still navigating regulatory uncertainty and opened the door for regulated institutional products tied to the token.

Selling Pressure Outweighs Demand

Market data shows XRP's futures market has cooled sharply. Open interest has fallen nearly 87%, dropping from around $15 billion earlier this year to approximately $1.91 billion, according to data from Coinglass. This wave of deleveraging removed much of the speculative buying that previously fueled rallies.

Meanwhile, large investors have quietly accumulated more than 600 million XRP during recent price declines. However, many retail investors have sold their holdings after months of stagnant price action, keeping selling pressure elevated.

Technical Analysis Points to Extended Sideways Phase

According to analyst Chartnerd, XRP has taken an average of approximately 1,410 days to reach each new cycle high. Previous cycles lasted 1,490 days (2013–2018), 1,197 days (2018–2021), and 1,556 days (2021–2025).

Based on time-based Fibonacci extensions and historical market cycles, Chartnerd projects XRP could target around $27 by 2029 or 2030.

Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling declining volatility and suggesting XRP may remain range-bound before its next major move. If history repeats, the current setup mirrors the extended accumulation period that preceded the 2024 breakout. Unless XRP breaks above the 20-week Bollinger Band and key resistance levels, analysts believe the token could continue trading sideways before building momentum for its next bullish cycle.

Standard Chartered's Long-Term Forecast

This outlook aligns with Standard Chartered's long-term projections, which forecast XRP reaching $7 by 2027, $12.60 by 2028, and nearly $28 by 2030. The bank cites growth in cross-border payments, tokenization — the issuance of traditional financial assets such as bonds and fund shares on blockchain networks, a trend already being pursued by major asset managers including BlackRock — and increasing institutional adoption as key drivers.

🇺🇸🏦 $28 BY 2030 🏦🇺🇸 Standard Chartered projects that XRP could reach $28 by 2030. The bank believes XRP could benefit from the growth of cross border payments, tokenization, and increasing institutional adoption. Now it's the banks. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/tnwEtVW1pL — John Squire (@TheCryptoSquire) July 21, 2026