XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger and one of the largest digital assets by market capitalization, is holding near $1.09 as traders monitor a historically recurring pattern that could see the token find its cycle bottom ahead of Bitcoin — though the setup is far from confirmed.

Over the past 24 hours, XRP has slipped 0.23%, despite posting a modest 0.46% gain over the weekly timeframe. Trading volume stands at $662,100,044, according to CoinGecko data. Analysts remain divided on whether the current pullback represents an early macro low relative to Bitcoin, a dynamic observed in two previous market cycles. The XRP-Bitcoin timing relationship draws trader attention because divergences between altcoin and Bitcoin cycle lows can signal shifting capital flows within the broader crypto market.

XRP's History of Bottoming Before Bitcoin

Crypto analyst ChartNerd identified two prior midterm election years — June 2014 and June 2022 — when XRP established its macro floor months before Bitcoin confirmed its own bottom during the fourth quarter.

You might want to see this.. $XRP has previously set its macro floor a few months ahead of BTC: June 2014 & June 2022 (both midterm years) marked the bottom well before BTC's confirmation in Q4. If $1.08 holds while BTC marks a new low, there is a slim chance the bottom is in.… pic.twitter.com/xZSsFV5a2X — 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) July 25, 2026

Both instances aligned with broader market cycles tied to the U.S. political calendar, with Bitcoin's fourth-quarter confirmations coinciding with the November midterm election period. With 2026 itself a midterm year, the parallel is drawing particular scrutiny from traders looking for recurring cycle structures. If the $1.08 level holds while Bitcoin sets a fresh low, ChartNerd noted there is a slim chance that XRP's bottom is already in place.

However, the pattern is not guaranteed to repeat. ChartNerd also pointed to 2018, another midterm year, in which XRP's decline extended further and lasted longer than Bitcoin's. Every midterm cycle since 2014 — including the current 70% drawdown into 2026 — has produced bearish pressure on XRP. From a data perspective, the setup remains balanced, with no confirmed directional bias at this stage.

$1.08 Support Zone Under Pressure

Trader Diana highlighted XRP trading near $1.095, with buyers actively defending the $1.08 zone, a level sitting just below the psychologically significant $1 mark. The 4-hour chart shows price positioned below a moving average cluster in the $1.11 to $1.12 range. Former triangle support has already broken, intensifying pressure on the current level.

RSI readings are near 39, sitting below the signal line of approximately 45, which indicates weak momentum despite a minor bounce.

Two scenarios emerge from current levels. If XRP holds above $1.08 and reclaims the $1.11 to $1.12 range, the path could open toward $1.145, followed by $1.20, with $1.29 to $1.30 serving as the next major resistance. Conversely, a decisive break below $1.08 would shift focus to $0.91 as the initial downside target, with $0.86 identified as the deeper macro support zone. From current pricing, a decline to $0.86 would represent approximately a 21% drop.

Traders Split on Next Move

Trader Jack characterized XRP as approaching a make-or-break level after a rejection near $1.15 pushed price back to the $1.08 support area.

$XRP is approaching a make-or-break level. 👀 After getting rejected near $1.15, price has pulled back to the $1.08 support zone. If buyers defend this level, a push back toward $1.12–$1.15 is on the table. If support fails, $1.05 becomes the next area to watch. The biggest… pic.twitter.com/frRB98Vndd — Jack (@WispOfDeFi) July 25, 2026

A successful defense of $1.08 could open a path back toward $1.12 to $1.15, while a failure would shift attention to $1.05 as the next area of interest. Jack emphasized that reacting to confirmed price action matters more than attempting to predict the outcome in advance.

The divergence among chart analysts reflects a broader market standoff. Some cite XRP's historical tendency to bottom early in past midterm cycles as grounds for cautious optimism. Others counter that the same historical record includes instances where XRP's losses ran deeper and persisted longer than Bitcoin's. With $1.08 serving as the current dividing line, traders are closely monitoring which direction the level ultimately breaks, and whether the fourth quarter — the historical window in which prior cycle patterns either confirmed or invalidated — will provide the next directional clarity.