Sui ($SUI) was down 8.76% over the past week and had declined 1.43% in the previous 24 hours. By comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) was up 0.5% over the same 24-hour period.

Coinalyze data showed that spot CVD for the altcoin had been declining over the past two days. Spot CVD, or cumulative volume delta, is often used to track whether market buys or sells are dominating spot activity. Open Interest also moved lower as prices fell from $0.72, while the funding rate remained positive.

The data indicated short-term bearish conditions, although aggressive short selling had not yet started. Negative funding rates combined with rising Open Interest could set up a price bounce and a short squeeze, but current conditions also presented other risks for traders and investors.

Token unlocks add pressure as SUI remains in a long-term downtrend

Sui’s recovery remained under pressure ahead of an upcoming token unlock. A total of 13.72 million $SUI tokens, valued at $9.76 million, are scheduled to be unlocked on August 1. Over the past 30 days, 22.76 million tokens have already been released across four separate events.

Token unlocks can signal additional supply pressure and potential short-term selling as tokens become available to early contributors. The impact is not automatic, but unlock schedules are closely watched because they increase the amount of tokens that can enter circulation. In addition, only 40.6% of the vesting schedule has been completed, meaning further unlocks are still expected in the future.

The one-day swing structure for $SUI remained firmly bearish. The latest downward impulse move, from $1.42 to $0.65 in May and early June, set the stage for a possible bounce into the Fibonacci golden pocket between $1.12 and $1.25, corresponding to the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement levels.

Over the past two months, the altcoin has been trading in a consolidation phase.

Range levels remain in focus

The two-month consolidation has produced a $SUI range formation, marked in the original analysis as purple, between $0.70 and $0.77. At the time of writing, the altcoin was trading almost exactly at the lower end of that range.

A liquidity sweep toward $0.69 had occurred in recent hours. Another similar sweep remains possible in the coming days if $SUI does not react bullishly soon.

Under the current setup, swing traders were watching the range highs around $0.775 as a potential target area. The range formation would be invalidated if an H4 session closed below $0.692. Traders tracking this setup were therefore focused on whether $SUI could defend the lower boundary of the range while the August unlock approached.

Summary

Sui token unlocks and the longer-term bearish trend continue to test investor conviction. The current range setup leaves room for a possible 10% move, but a breakout above $1.42 would be required to turn the long-term trend bullish.