SpaceX Shares Fall 11% After First Quarterly Results on Spending and Lockup Concerns
Key Takeaways
- •SpaceX reported first-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, representing a 92% year-over-year increase that surpassed Wall Street estimates.
- •The company spent $18.4 billion during the quarter to simultaneously scale Starlink, develop Starship, and build AI-compute infrastructure.
- •JPMorgan forecasts that SpaceX's capital expenditures will approach $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, comparable to the largest corporate technology buildouts in history.
- •Thursday's lock-up expiration could make 911.5 million insider shares eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%.
- •Analyst price targets diverge sharply, with JPMorgan at $240 and Raymond James at $800, reflecting uncertainty over how to value the company given its rapid growth and unprecedented capital requirements.
SpaceX shares fell 11% in pre-market trading Wednesday as investors focused on heavy capital spending and a major insider-share lockup set to expire Thursday, even after the company reported stronger-than-expected first quarterly results as a public company.
Revenue rose 92% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. SpaceX narrowed its net loss to $541 million, but it also spent $18.4 billion during the quarter as it expanded Starlink, Starship and its AI infrastructure. The spending pace underscores how SpaceX is simultaneously scaling a global satellite-internet business, developing a next-generation launch vehicle, and building AI-compute capacity—three capital-intensive programs running in parallel.
The company held all 18,712 bitcoin on its balance sheet through the quarter. The position was worth about $1.1 billion at the end of June, highlighting the accounting risk CoinDesk flagged before the IPO: bitcoin price swings now flow through the public company's quarterly earnings under fair-value rules. The stake lost roughly $195 million in value during the quarter, adding volatility to results.
JPMorgan, which raised its price target to $240 from $225, said it now expects the space company's capital expenditures to reach nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, adding further pressure on free cash flow. "We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers," the analysts wrote. The comparison places SpaceX's forward spending in the same bracket as the largest technology-infrastructure buildouts in corporate history.
The bank also pointed to Thursday's lock-up expiration, when 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%. JPMorgan said much of the event may already be reflected in the stock because investors have had months to prepare.
Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 price target, saying the company's operating performance remains strong. The more than threefold gap between the two firms' targets reflects divergent views on how to value a company whose revenue is growing rapidly but whose capital requirements remain unprecedented for a newly public enterprise.
Shares were changing hands at $111.80.
