Prediction market traders are placing the probability of a public GPT-6 release by September 30 at roughly 78%, with odds rising over the past 24 hours on both Polymarket and Myriad.

OpenAI has not announced GPT-6 or provided a release date. The company’s current flagship model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was released publicly on July 9.

Interest in OpenAI’s next frontier model remains high among AI users, and prediction market pricing is increasingly pointing toward September as the key window. Polymarket’s GPT-6 market has generated about $731,000 in trading volume, representing the total value of contracts bought and sold. That figure is up roughly $32,000 from the previous indexed snapshot.

On Polymarket, the contract for a public GPT-6 release by September 30 climbed to 77%. The August 31 contract moved into the mid-30% range, while the August 21 contract slipped to 15%. The September odds have risen sharply from 14% at the start of the month.

The structure of these markets is important because the contracts are cumulative “released by” deadlines, meaning each date includes all earlier days. The difference between the August and September contracts does not indicate that traders view an August release as impossible. Rather, market pricing now shows September as substantially more likely than the next several weeks.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the probability of a September release also rose to 77%, up from 64% last week.

Prediction markets allow participants to buy contracts that pay $1 if a specified event occurs and $0 if it does not. The contract price is commonly interpreted as the crowd’s implied probability. Such markets are not definitive forecasts, and their signals can be affected by liquidity, market rules, and changing public information. But participants risk money when they are wrong, which is why their pricing is often closely watched.

As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly disclosed GPT-6, its technical design, or any launch timing. Its current flagship, GPT-5.6 Sol, remains its most capable general-purpose model after its July 9 release.

OpenAI has provided almost no detail about what GPT-6 would include. Based on the capabilities already present in GPT-5.6 Sol, expectations center less on a conventional chatbot and more on an autonomous coworker-style system. GPT-5.6 can coordinate multiple AI agents—systems able to plan and execute tasks using digital tools—operate software, and handle long professional assignments. OpenAI is also building memory features designed to keep a user’s preferences and projects available across conversations.

That makes the timing of any next model notable for developers and enterprise users as well as consumers, because new flagship releases can affect which tools companies test, integrate, or benchmark against competing AI systems. A shift from GPT-5.6 to GPT-6 would likely extend those directions, with assistants requiring less supervision, remembering users more consistently, and completing complex work at lower cost. However, OpenAI has not released any design, model size, pricing, or feature list for GPT-6.

The prediction market activity comes during a busy period for OpenAI. The company confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. It also announced 250 new jobs in Dublin, while SoftBank is financing its OpenAI push through a $40 billion bridge facility, a short-term loan used until longer-term financing is arranged.

A new model release would not resolve the cybersecurity incident. Still, traders appear to be positioning around the possibility that OpenAI’s next major response during a noisy summer will be another launch.