The investor confidence index Sentix for the eurozone slightly declined in November, falling by 0.3 points to 2.4 from the previous reading of 2.7 and coming in above the expected 2.1, as economic expectations continued to deteriorate. The Sentix index is a monthly, survey-based measure of investor sentiment, combining forward-looking expectations with an assessment of current economic conditions, making it a closely watched indicator showing how market participants assess the growth trajectory. Investors are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of the recovery amid numerous adversities. Full report

The current conditions component of the index remained unchanged at -3.3, while the expectations gauge fell for the second consecutive month to 8.3, its lowest level since June 2026. Despite the slightly positive headline reading, the persistently negative assessment of current conditions indicates that the eurozone economy remains stuck in a stagnation scenario. The combination of a negative present conditions reading and a declining expectations value is the key signal of the survey this month: sentiment about the future is weakening, even though the assessment of the present remains unchanged.

The sharpest deterioration in confidence was recorded in the USA, where the Sentix Economic Index fell by 2.0 points to 13.1, its lowest level since June 2026. The decline was mainly driven by weakening expectations, which fell by 3.5 points to -2.5, entering negative territory for the first time since June. In contrast, the current conditions component remained relatively strong at 30.0.

Sentix highlighted concerns that a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress could hinder Trump's economic agenda and limit the scope for additional fiscal stimulus. High financing costs and geopolitical risks are also contributing to increasing uncertainty.

The deterioration in sentiment is not limited to the USA and Europe. The Sentix Global Aggregate Index fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 12.7, its lowest level since June 2026. Economic expectations weakened for the third month to 9.3, while the assessment of current conditions remained relatively stable at 16.2. Since the global aggregate collects sentiment from various regions, three consecutive monthly declines point to a broad weakening of expectations within the survey, rather than a decline concerning only a single economy.

On a more positive note, investors expect some stabilization in the inflation outlook. The Sentix barometer for the inflation theme improved from -29.25 to -22.5, while the barometer for central bank policy rose from -21 to -12.75, indicating expectations of a slightly less restrictive monetary policy environment, although this goes hand in hand with a worse growth outlook.

Overall, the Sentix survey points to a gradual deterioration in global economic expectations against the backdrop of a Democratic Congress, the US-Iran war, and central bank tightening. Although current economic conditions remain resilient, investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the future outlook. Attention will now turn to next month's Sentix readings, with the trajectory of the expectations components — especially the transition of the US gauge into negative territory — being the key detail to monitor in subsequent releases.