Ethereum has been trading below its overall cost basis of $2.3K since February, effectively making the asset "cheap" on a relative basis. The cost basis, derived from on-chain realized price data, reflects the average price at which the entire ETH supply last changed hands; trading below it means the aggregate market is in a state of unrealized loss. With more holders sitting at a loss, selling pressure has diminished, which in turn reduces downside risk.

However, crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant has cautioned that a durable market bottom could remain elusive in the medium term. The firm noted that the final market cycle bottom could materialize if ETH reaches $1.15K, pointing to a pattern from 2022 observed in the Realized Price Bands metric.

During the 2022 bear market cycle, Ethereum marked a true bottom after touching the lower band of the metric. If this projection holds, a durable ETH bottom would require a 38% decline from the press time price of $1,885.

Three Signals Suggest ETH Has Not Bottomed

Beyond the Realized Price Bands, three additional ETH/BTC-relative signals indicate the asset may still be far from its final floor. Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin is widely tracked as a barometer of broader altcoin sentiment; persistent ETH/BTC weakness typically reflects risk-off conditions across the digital asset market.

1. ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio: The relative selling pressure on ETH was only halfway to the level that marked prior market bottoms. As of writing, the metric stood at 0.8, whereas it dropped to 0.4 during the 2020 and 2025 bottoms.

2. ETH/BTC MVRV: This valuation metric is also approximately halfway from reaching the bottom levels seen in the 2020 cycle and the 2025 local market bottoms. In both of those periods, ETH reversed after falling to an oversold reading of 0.025. At press time, the metric was slightly above 0.05, still well above the threshold that has historically signaled a market bottom.

3. ETH/BTC ETF Holdings: Relative ETH/BTC ETF holdings turned positive in the second half of the year for the first time since last year. U.S. spot ETH ETFs, which began trading in mid-2024, have introduced a new institutional demand layer to Ethereum's market structure. While ETF demand is improving, it has not yet dropped to the levels observed during the 2025 cycle.

Overall, only spot volumes and Ethereum's realized price bands indicated that the altcoin was undervalued and approaching past bottom territories.

CryptoQuant concluded:

But MVRV and exchange inflows are not yet at the extremes that have historically confirmed a floor. So a final bottom, and the ETH outperformance that would follow, may still take more time to form.

Staking Demand Reaches Record Levels

Despite the signals suggesting a bottom has not yet formed, staking demand has reached unprecedented levels. With over 41 million ETH in loss, a nearly similar amount has been staked, bringing the staking ratio to a record 33%. Ethereum's proof-of-stake system, fully operational since the network's Merge transition in September 2022, requires validators to lock ETH to secure the network and process transactions, effectively removing that supply from liquid circulation. Whether this strong staking demand will further reduce downside risk remains to be seen.

In summary, three key metrics indicate ETH may still be far from a durable bottom despite trading below the $2K level. Meanwhile, staking demand hit a record high in 2026, with over 40 million ETH currently staked and an additional 2.5 million ETH on the waiting list.