El Salvador’s two largest opposition parties have named their candidates for the February 2027 presidential election, creating a direct political test for President Nayib Bukele’s third-term campaign and the country’s Bitcoin (BTC) policy.

The Nationalist Republican Alliance, known as ARENA, has chosen former lawmaker Maytee Iraheta as its candidate. The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, or FMLN, selected physician and union leader Rafael Aguirre. Both campaigns have criticized the Bukele administration’s Bitcoin strategy as a fiscal failure, but neither party has released a detailed alternative framework for reserves, payments or digital-asset policy.

The opposition’s ability to change the national Bitcoin program would also be constrained by its weak legislative position. ARENA holds only two seats in the Legislative Assembly, while FMLN has held none since 2024. Any effort to reverse the program would therefore require a significantly broader coalition capable of changing monetary law, treasury allocation rules or the institutional mandate that permits the state to accumulate digital assets.

The election challenge comes as Bukele remains highly popular. One national poll placed his approval rating above 94 percent after six years in office. That support appears to be driven more by crime reduction than by monetary policy, with only 2.2 percent of Salvadorans surveyed identifying Bitcoin as his biggest failure. The gap suggests the opposition may avoid putting digital-asset policy at the center of its campaign, particularly because no rival reserve or payments plan has been presented.

Bitcoin has nevertheless become a symbolic issue in a wider debate over state modernization, fiscal credibility and executive power. Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party formally nominated him this month for a third term, with Vice President Felix Ulloa remaining his running mate. The candidacy tests a rewritten constitutional order that has already expanded executive authority and weakened legislative checks. The winner of the February 2027 election will govern until 2033, giving the next administration a long period in which to preserve or dismantle the Bitcoin experiment.

El Salvador’s legal treatment of Bitcoin has already changed substantially from its 2021 peak, when the country became the first in the world to introduce BTC as mandatory legal tender. After a $1.4 billion International Monetary Fund loan agreement in February 2025, the government removed the requirement that businesses accept BTC. The change restored the US dollar as the sole official currency for everyday commerce.

The IMF has repeatedly warned that El Salvador’s Bitcoin program carries fiscal and governance risks. It has also argued that the policy has not produced measurable gains in financial inclusion for unbanked Salvadorans. As a result of the legal shift, Bitcoin now functions as a state-backed reserve and adoption project rather than a compulsory payments rail, making future IMF reviews and domestic budget disclosures important reference points for assessing how much room the government has to keep accumulating BTC.

The government’s accumulation program has continued despite that legal retreat. Official tracker data reviewed as of July 27 shows El Salvador holding roughly 7,730 BTC, up from about 7,700 BTC one month earlier. The increase indicates that the National Bitcoin Office is still buying approximately one BTC per day, a policy Bukele has described as long-term reserve building rather than short-term trading.

In January, the government also increased its gold reserves, pointing to a broader hard-asset strategy. For market participants, El Salvador’s daily Bitcoin purchases are small compared with global trading volume, but they keep the country’s sovereign exposure to Bitcoin price cycles visible.

The next president will inherit a reserve position that remains fully exposed to Bitcoin’s price swings. Because the state has not disclosed a comprehensive risk-management framework, critics argue that daily purchases could increase fiscal pressure during a prolonged bear market. Supporters counter that dollar-cost averaging into a scarce asset can create long-term optionality, especially if adoption infrastructure eventually attracts payments, tourism and foreign investment.

The 2027 election will therefore test whether El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy becomes a lasting treasury strategy or remains a reversible experiment associated with one president’s agenda. Any reversal would likely require legislative action, IMF compliance checks or a sharp deterioration in public finances, while continuity would keep attention on reserve transparency, custody arrangements and the public cost of maintaining Bitcoin-related infrastructure.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates Bitcoin’s nearest support at $64,485 with an 89/100 score, driven by HVN and Swing Low confluence. Resistance at $66,956 scores 78/100, based on Donchian Upper and Swing High. Spot BTC at $64,831 sits above the strongest support, while a bullish MACD and RSI of 52.75 favor a retest of $65,068, a moderate 52/100 level tied to Ichimoku Tenkan and EMA 50.

Derivatives positioning is cautiously bullish, with funding at 0.0018%, open interest at $12.75 billion and a long/short ratio of 1.72. However, Fear and Greed at 30 signals fear. A daily close below $64,485 would weaken the uptrend thesis.

COINOTAG does not provide financial advisory services. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk.