Crypto Markets Rise as Fed Decision, Inflation Data and Tech Earnings Loom
Key Takeaways
- •The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- •CME FedWatch data showed a 63.7% probability that rates remain unchanged and a 36.3% chance of an increase.
- •More than 15% of S&P 500 companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, are due to report earnings this week.
- •Bitcoin rose 1% to $65,500 before easing, while resistance above $66,000 has kept it range-bound for almost two months.
- •Ethereum gained 3.5% to $1,960, its highest level in seven weeks, but remained below $2,000.
Crypto markets edged higher on Monday morning in Asia as investors prepared for a potentially volatile week focused on the US central bank, major economic data, and large technology company earnings.
Geopolitical developments also remained in focus. Iran said it would stop its attacks as long as the United States did the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The United States paused its bombing campaign on Friday after 13 nights of intensifying airstrikes. The development contributed to lower oil prices and gains in US stock futures and crypto markets.
Economic Events From July 27 to 31
July Consumer Confidence data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, offering a gauge of consumer spending conditions. The week’s central event comes on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference outlining the policy direction.
The meeting comes as investors assess uncertainty around technology sector valuations, spending on AI infrastructure, and the broader economic growth path, while inflationary pressures remain in the background. For crypto traders, the Fed decision and inflation readings are closely watched because interest-rate expectations can influence liquidity conditions and appetite for risk assets.
The market “feels very frothy,” Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, told Reuters. “Investors are, to a certain extent, walking on eggshells, and they’re more likely to react negatively to any signs of imperfection.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that rates remain unchanged has fallen to 63.7%, while the tool now indicates a 36.3% chance of an increase.
July PCE inflation data is due on Thursday. The PCE index is closely followed because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. On Friday, markets are set to receive the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and Inflation Expectations data.
Key Events This Week:
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Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes – Today, 6 PM ET
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July Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
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July Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
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Microsoft, $MSFT , Meta, $META , Report Earnings – Wednesday
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July PCE Inflation data – Thursday…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2026
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2081376483705069752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
More than 15% of S&P 500 companies are also scheduled to report earnings this week, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Results from those companies may also shape broader risk sentiment, given their weight in major US equity indexes and the market’s focus on AI-related spending.
Crypto Market Outlook
Digital asset markets moved higher over the weekend, with total crypto market capitalization rising to $2.3 trillion on Monday morning in Asia.
Bitcoin gained 1% on the day to reach $65,500 in early trading before pulling back slightly. The asset continued to face heavy resistance above $66,000, a level that has kept it range-bound for almost two months.
Ethereum posted a larger move, rising 3.5% to a seven-week high of $1,960. However, it also faced resistance around that level and has not traded above $2,000 since June 2.
Only a small group of altcoins recorded notable movement, including Zcash, Chainlink, and Uniswap. Monero, meanwhile, was down 4%.
