Galaxy Research has downgraded the CLARITY Act's chances of passing this year from 50% to 30%, citing a narrow Senate vote margin and continued Republican opposition. The bill, which would establish clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC for digital asset oversight and define when tokens qualify as securities versus commodities, has been one of the most closely watched pieces of crypto legislation in Congress. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket places the odds at roughly 39% for the bill becoming law at some point in 2026, though some analysts believe the actual likelihood could be lower still.

Timing remains a central concern. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated this week that he does not anticipate a vote before the August recess, a window widely regarded as the most realistic opportunity for passage. Beyond that point, the legislative calendar tightens substantially, making it more difficult to secure the 60 votes required to advance the bill.

Institutional Buildout Continues Unabated

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello contends that declining passage odds are disconnected from the actions of the world's largest financial institutions. If regulatory failure were a genuine risk, the reasoning goes, the industry buildout would not be accelerating. In the absence of comprehensive federal crypto legislation, firms currently operate under a patchwork of SEC enforcement actions, CFTC oversight, and varying state-level frameworks — an environment that raises compliance costs and legal exposure for market participants.

Recent developments appear to support that view. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi have unveiled a shared tokenized deposit network. Visa and Mastercard launched a new stablecoin backed by more than 140 companies. Morgan Stanley has established a national trust bank and completed a cryptocurrency rollout.

Charles Schwab is openly targeting Coinbase's market share. The DTCC, the core clearing infrastructure behind Wall Street, is running production trades of tokenized securities this month. Vanguard — the firm that blocked Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 — has posted its first-ever Head of Digital Assets role.

Samsung has announced native stablecoin support within Samsung Wallet. The Fraternal Order of Police, representing 382,000 members, endorsed the CLARITY Act. Separately, the crypto industry has emerged as the single largest corporate political spender in the entire 2026 election cycle.

The core argument from analysts is straightforward: institutions with access to the best legal and political intelligence do not build settlement networks, trust banks, and multi-year roadmaps around a regulatory framework they expect to fail.

Political Spending Surges in Washington

The crypto industry has directed $189 million into the 2026 midterms, a figure described as the largest corporate political expenditure of the cycle. Industry super PAC Fair Shake held nearly $127 million in cash at the end of June, ranking second only to the main Senate Republican PAC. Ripple alone contributed $48 million.

Market Implications

A delayed CLARITY Act likely prolongs regulatory uncertainty, which could contribute to elevated volatility for crypto-linked stocks and tokens in the near term. However, the breadth of institutional buildout suggests that major financial companies are positioning for the industry's long-term trajectory regardless of when — or even whether — this particular bill reaches the finish line this year.

Source: CoinEdition