Bitcoin climbed above $65,000 after military clashes between the United States and Iran eased for a second consecutive day. The move also coincided with gains across altcoins, as Ethereum rose more than 4% over the past 24 hours to trade above $1,960, while major altcoins including Solana and XRP advanced between 1% and 2%. International oil prices, by contrast, fell by about 5%.

The week is expected to be important for BTC and the broader altcoin market, with the Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its July interest rate decision on Wednesday. Rate decisions are closely watched by crypto traders because changes in borrowing costs and liquidity expectations can affect demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin and major altcoins.

Whether Bitcoin’s latest upward move continues will depend on upcoming developments, while one analyst said BTC has moved into a region that is below its current value but still lacks clear upward momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler wrote that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, a widely followed valuation benchmark, has declined to a multi-year low but remains above the negative zone. The metric compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which is based on the price at which coins last moved on-chain, and is often used to assess whether the market is trading at historically elevated or depressed valuation levels.

According to Adler, Bitcoin has entered a price area that has historically been considered below its true value. However, he said the full capitulation process observed near the lows of previous bear markets has not yet taken place.

The analyst said the data shows Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is currently around 0.42, far below its historical average of 1.7. However, it has not yet fallen into negative territory, a level associated with widespread selling.

Adler also noted that Bitcoin’s seven-day realized profit and loss pattern has shifted from negative to positive. He said this points to a decline in on-chain selling pressure, but added that the change alone is not enough to confirm the start of a new bull cycle.

In Adler’s assessment, the recovery in the profit/loss metric indicates that selling pressure has eased, while the MVRV Z-Score has still not moved below zero to trigger capitulation selling. As a result, he described Bitcoin’s current position as closer to an “undervalued stabilization phase” than a confirmed cycle bottom.

The analyst concluded that lower selling pressure or a market trading below its value is not sufficient on its own for a bottom to form and a sustained uptrend to begin. He said strong on-chain demand, improved profitability, and aggressive accumulation by long-term investors would also be required.