Bitcoin moved back above $65,000 as the United States and Iran paused military strikes for a second consecutive day, helping lift risk appetite across financial markets.

The pause in hostilities raised hopes that peace negotiations could resume after two weeks of attacks. Iran said it would continue to halt airstrikes as long as the U.S. did the same.

In a July 26 post on X, The Kobeissi Letter wrote: “BREAKING: US stock market futures surge after the US and Iran halt strikes: 1. S&P 500: +0.7% 2. Nasdaq 100: +1.2% 3. Dow Jones: +0.6% 4. WTI Crude: -8.0% 5. Brent: -6.0% 6. Gold: +0.7% The market is beginning to price-in a peace deal again.”

Oil prices declined sharply following the halt in strikes. Brent crude fell more than 5% to below $87 a barrel, while WTI futures were down around 5% at $85. The initial market move included a drop of as much as 6% in oil prices, with WTI crude cited as down 8.0% and Brent down 6.0% in The Kobeissi Letter’s update.

The reaction showed how closely traders are linking geopolitical risk, energy prices, and expectations for monetary policy. Crypto assets often trade alongside other risk-sensitive markets during major macro events, particularly when oil prices and inflation expectations are moving quickly.

Bitcoin rose about 1.2% over 24 hours and traded around $65,169. Ether outperformed Bitcoin on the day, gaining more than 3% to nearly $1,950.

Other major tokens also advanced. Solana and XRP each posted gains in the 1% to 2% range among top-10 cryptocurrencies.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Indian exchange Giottus, said Ether’s move suggests some rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies. He also noted that Bitcoin dominance remains at 58.6%, indicating that a broad altcoin rally has not yet begun.

U.S. Stock Futures Rise Before Fed Meeting and Big Tech Earnings

U.S. stock futures also moved higher. Dow Jones futures gained 0.8%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%, and Nasdaq-100 contracts climbed 1.4%. The Kobeissi Letter separately cited moves of 0.7% for S&P 500 futures, 1.2% for Nasdaq 100 futures, and 0.6% for Dow Jones futures.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 28 and 29. Markets currently assign a 36.3% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike, making the decision one of the least-predicted Fed outcomes in recent memory.

Lower oil prices could ease some pressure on the Fed, which has continued to monitor inflation closely. Cheaper oil generally reduces broader price pressures across the economy. That makes energy markets an important input for investors assessing whether financial conditions may tighten further.

Earnings season is also set to reach a peak this week. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are all due to report results.

Investors will be watching capital spending plans closely, particularly those tied to artificial intelligence. Alphabet and Tesla’s recent AI spending figures unsettled parts of the technology sector last week.

Other companies scheduled to report this week include Coca-Cola, Starbucks, Procter & Gamble, and Arm Holdings. The week is set to conclude with earnings from ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Analysts Watch Bitcoin Cycle Pattern

Some analysts are also focusing on Bitcoin’s longer-term price pattern. Joao Wedson, CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, noted that the period between each Bitcoin halving and the following bear market bottom has historically been around 900 days.

The current cycle is at day 827. Based on that pattern, Wedson said Bitcoin may be building a price bottom, with a potential final low forming within the next two months.

Currency markets also reflected the improved tone across markets. The Australian dollar and the euro both gained against the U.S. dollar on Monday.