Bitcoin moved above the $65,000 mark on Monday after a weekend de-escalation between the United States and Iran helped push crude oil prices lower and lifted conditions across global financial markets.

Brent crude fell more than 5% after Iranian officials said they would suspend retaliatory operations if the United States halted further military strikes. Washington also paused its aerial offensive. The developments reduced concerns about a wider regional escalation and eased upward pressure on inflation expectations. Oil prices are closely watched by macro traders because sustained increases can feed into transport and production costs, complicating the inflation outlook that guides central bank policy.

A softer inflation outlook weakened the dollar’s position, increasing the appeal of digital assets for international investors. BTC was trading near $65,405, up approximately 1.5% on the day.

Market observer Ted Pillows said on X that Bitcoin was consolidating near $64,500 and that a sustained move back above $65,000 could put the asset on course for new monthly highs.

$BTC is hovering around the $64,500 level. A reclaim of $65,000 could send Bitcoin to new monthly highs. pic.twitter.com/7yYj6yO9Yl — Ted (@TedPillows) July 26, 2026

https://x.com/TedPillows/status/2081296181120889042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Technical analyst Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin bulls still needed to clear the local high from June and July near $67,000. He identified the daily 200-day moving average and exponential moving average area around $72,000 to $73,000 as the next region traders could target if that level is broken. On the downside, he cited the $60,000 range as high-timeframe support.

$BTC These levels are still all you need. The level to break for the bulls is that local high from June/July at ~$67K. From there you can start targeting the daily 200MA/EMA coming in around the $72K-$73K area. On the downside, the high timeframe support to hold is that $60K… pic.twitter.com/IXWQ2PMX3C — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 26, 2026

https://x.com/DaanCrypto/status/2081470359577260236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Federal Reserve Decision in Focus

Market participants are also watching the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, although financial markets are pricing in roughly a 33% probability of an increase.

Investors are expected to examine comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on the direction of monetary policy through 2026. Higher interest rates typically weigh on risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, by making traditional fixed-income investments more attractive. For Bitcoin traders, the policy statement and press conference can be as important as the rate decision itself because changes in inflation language, labor-market assessment, or balance-sheet guidance can affect liquidity expectations.

Large Holder Transfers and Supply Conditions

Blockchain analytics added to the broader market picture. Approximately 3,080 BTC, worth nearly $198 million, left Kraken in two separate transactions. The coins were transferred to unidentified addresses, a pattern commonly associated with accumulation rather than liquidation. Exchange outflows are often monitored as a supply indicator, although transfers to unidentified wallets do not by themselves confirm the owner’s intent.

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio rose to 46,500, a 350% increase over a 24-hour period. The sharp move pointed to tightening supply conditions as the amount of available BTC on trading platforms declined.

Selling activity from Bitcoin miners also eased. The Miners’ Position Index fell to -1.24, a decline of more than 128% in one session. A negative reading indicates that miners are distributing fewer coins than their annual average, reducing another potential source of selling pressure.

At publication time, Bitcoin was trading around $64,368 and remained above channel support near $63,824. Immediate resistance was identified at $66,835, with a larger barrier near $73,000. The Relative Strength Index stood at 50.85, indicating neutral momentum conditions.

The $63,824 support level remains a key threshold cited in the analysis. A decisive move below that level could expose the $60,000 psychological zone.