Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure, with one chart analyst saying the next several weeks may determine whether the current bear market is nearing its final stage or still has further downside ahead. The assessment comes as traders increasingly look to historical cycle structures for clues about how much longer the current downtrend may persist.

After being rejected from resistance earlier in July, Bitcoin has continued to pull back and is now testing structural support near $63,760. The price is also moving toward a broader support area that the analyst is monitoring closely.

The key zone highlighted by the analyst sits between $59,356 and $62,492. According to the analyst, a failure to defend that range could indicate that the next leg lower has already begun.

In that bearish scenario, the analyst said Bitcoin could continue declining toward $44,000 and possibly fall even further. If the deeper downside path develops, Bitcoin could eventually move toward a possible target near $39,000 later this year.

Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern in Focus

Alongside the bearish outlook, the analyst also described a separate framework based on a classic accumulation pattern first documented by market analyst Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s. Wyckoff studied how large investors gradually build positions during periods when market sentiment is weak and retail participation has largely faded. His methodology predates cryptocurrency markets by nearly a century but has been widely adopted by digital asset traders as a lens for interpreting how large-scale position-building unfolds in volatile, relatively young markets.

The pattern typically develops across five phases. It begins with an initial downtrend, followed by a prolonged consolidation range in which price moves sideways for months while negative headlines continue to dominate. That phase is often followed by a sharp final move below previous support, intended to trigger stop losses and push out remaining sellers, before price quickly reclaims the lost level on lighter volume.

If that reclaimed support holds, the move can mark the actual market low. The structure may then lead into a slow recovery phase and, eventually, a stronger breakout supported by increased volume.

The analyst said Bitcoin's current price action has aligned reasonably well with this framework so far. If the pattern continues to develop, Bitcoin may only need to dip modestly into the low-to-mid $50,000 range before attracting meaningful buying interest. That outcome would represent a considerably shallower decline than the more bearish scenario pointing toward $44,000 or lower.

Why the 200-Week Moving Average Matters

Another important data point cited by the analyst is Bitcoin's decline from its recent all-time high. BTC has already fallen 55% from that peak. For context, Bitcoin's previous major bear markets — most notably those ending in 2015 and 2018 — saw peak-to-trough drawdowns exceeding 75%, meaning the current cycle's decline remains less severe than those earlier episodes at this stage.

Historically, the 200-week moving average has marked the general area where previous Bitcoin bear market lows have formed. The indicator is one of the most widely referenced long-term benchmarks in Bitcoin technical analysis, having drawn attention during each of the asset's prior major cycles. Bitcoin's current price is now close to that level.

The analyst warned that Bitcoin could still decline another 30% before this cycle's low is fully established. However, the analyst added that even if such a decline occurs, the remaining downside could play out within the next two to three months, potentially making it the shortest remaining stretch of the broader downtrend. Whether the coming weeks confirm a bullish accumulation structure or validate the deeper bearish scenario will hinge largely on whether the $59,356–$62,492 support zone holds under selling pressure.