Bitcoin (BTC) has posted minor losses in recent trading sessions. A spot ETF inflow streak — the longest in nine months — was broken on Thursday, July 23, when a $225.1 million outflow was recorded. Since their U.S. regulatory approval in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a significant conduit for institutional capital, making their flow trends a closely watched indicator of demand-side pressure.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a long-term bearish price trend. The bulls' inability to break above the $67,000 local supply zone has returned market control to the bears.

Bitcoin MVRV and Realized Losses

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, when above 1, indicates that the aggregate holder remains in profit. Historically, bear market bottoms have only been reached when the MVRV falls below 1, as occurred during the 2018–2019 cycle before the subsequent recovery took hold.

Crypto analyst Rei Researcher noted that this has not yet occurred in the current cycle. The market remains far from bullish overheated territory, but has not yet reached a bear market bottom either.

On-chain data suggests that cyclical capitulation may not have fully concluded. The recent price bounce may have provided some long-term holders with an opportunity to reduce exposure ahead of potential further weakness.

Supply in Profit and LTH SOPR Metrics

Analyst The Chess Onchain observed that the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit currently stands at 57.5%. The 30-day average of the long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH SOPR) — a metric used to identify the end of bear trends — currently sits at 0.86 and would need to reclaim 1.0 to reliably signal a trend reversal.

Historically, the supply in profit metric has been at least 64% when the LTH SOPR reclaimed 1.0. Until the metric climbs back above these levels and sustains that position for several weeks, any apparent price recovery should be considered as occurring within a bearish regime.

Older BTC Supply and Cost Basis

When the price bounce began in early June, BTC older than six months spiked to 12%–16% of exchange inflows, and has since declined to 0.8%.

A cohort of holders who purchased between one month and two years ago have their cost basis in the $72,000–$102,000 range. This supply overhang presents a potential obstacle to any sustained recovery, as another wave of selling and deeper capitulation could force these holders to sell.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has not yet fallen below 1.0, a level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in previous cycles. The April 2024 halving, which reduced the per-block issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, introduces a supply-side variable that differentiates this cycle from prior ones. Nevertheless, both the supply in profit and LTH SOPR metrics point to the same conclusion: the current price bounce is occurring within a broader bearish regime, and on-chain data suggests Bitcoin has not yet exited it.