On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has indicated that Bitcoin may be moving closer to a market bottom in the third quarter of 2025, citing early accumulation patterns among long-term holders.

The assessment, based on Glassnode’s proprietary on-chain metrics, suggests that selling pressure is easing and that the market is beginning to shift toward accumulation. However, the firm has not confirmed that a definitive bottom has been reached. Because on-chain indicators track activity recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain, they can help show how holders are behaving, but they do not capture every off-chain market factor that can influence price.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Indicators

Glassnode’s analysis centers on several on-chain measures, including exchange flow balance, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders.

As of late July 2025, the data shows a notable decline in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. Historically, reduced exchange inflows have been associated with lower selling intent, as fewer coins are being moved to venues where they can be sold immediately.

The SOPR metric has also fallen below 1. The spent output profit ratio measures whether coins being moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. A reading below 1 indicates that short-term holders are selling at a loss, a condition that has often appeared before previous market bottoms.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score, which measures the relative size of entities accumulating Bitcoin, has moved into positive territory for the first time since early 2025. According to the firm, that shift suggests that larger and more experienced market participants are beginning to add to their positions, while retail sentiment remains cautious.

Glassnode noted that similar on-chain patterns were observed during Bitcoin market bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Those historical comparisons are useful because Bitcoin cycles have often featured periods of capitulation followed by gradual accumulation, but Glassnode’s framing also underscores that recurring on-chain patterns are not exact timing signals.

Market Context and Timeline

Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $65,000 throughout the second quarter of 2025 after reaching an all-time high of $73,750 in March. The subsequent correction, attributed to regulatory uncertainty in the United States and broader risk-off conditions across global markets, left the asset approximately 20% below its peak.

Glassnode’s models suggest that a bottom could form in Q3 2025, with a possible recovery beginning in late September or early October, provided there are no major macroeconomic shocks.

The firm emphasized that on-chain data is a lagging indicator. It also said external factors, including Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and geopolitical developments, could change the projected timeline. Even so, Glassnode described the early accumulation signals as constructive for long-term holders.

That distinction matters for interpreting the data: a shift toward accumulation can show that some holders are becoming less willing to sell, but confirmation of a durable bottom typically depends on whether those signals persist alongside broader market stability.

Implications for Market Participants

Glassnode’s data indicates that the current period may be significant for investors with a long-term time horizon, although the firm cautioned against attempting to time the exact market bottom.

The analysis points to early accumulation by large holders, often referred to as “whales” and “sharks.” Such accumulation has typically appeared before sustained price appreciation in past cycles, according to Glassnode. However, the firm noted that accumulation phases can last several weeks or months before a clear uptrend develops.

Glassnode also highlighted exchange reserves as an important metric to monitor. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 2023. A declining supply on exchanges is generally viewed as reducing the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale.

Market participants tracking the same setup are likely to focus on whether exchange inflows remain subdued, whether SOPR stabilizes after falling below 1, and whether long-term holder supply continues to increase. Together, those indicators would offer a clearer view of whether the current accumulation phase is strengthening or fading.

Conclusion

Glassnode’s on-chain data presents a data-driven case that Bitcoin may be nearing a cyclical bottom in Q3 2025. Early accumulation signals are emerging, but the market remains exposed to external pressures, including macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical developments.

The firm said these indicators should be considered as part of a broader analytical framework rather than treated as a precise timing tool. The coming weeks will be important in determining whether the current accumulation phase develops into a sustained recovery.

FAQs

Q1: What is Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score?

The Accumulation Trend Score measures the relative size of entities accumulating Bitcoin compared with those distributing it. A positive score indicates that larger holders are increasing their positions, which historically has been a precursor to market bottoms.

Q2: Why is the SOPR metric important for identifying Bitcoin bottoms?

The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, shows whether holders are selling at a profit or at a loss. A SOPR reading below 1 means short-term holders are selling at a loss, a condition that often signals capitulation and has preceded market bottoms.

Q3: Can external factors override on-chain accumulation signals?

Yes. While on-chain data can provide useful market insight, external factors such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic events, or geopolitical crises can delay or disrupt an expected bottom formation. Glassnode said on-chain data should be used as one tool among many.